Our “Political Insiders” says the 2018 4th CD race will boil down to Republican Mia Love vs. Democrat Ben McAdams, and most think Love will win that matchup.
Democratic Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams jolted the Utah political world two weeks ago, announcing that he would challenge Love in CD4 next year. Love, a two-term Republican, was not expecting a strong challenge next year until McAdams jumped into the race.
We asked our “Political Insiders” which of the candidates was most likely to win next year’s CD4 race.
- 69% of Republicans said Mia Love was the most likely to win next year, with 31% picking Democrat Ben McAdams.
- 88% of Democrats say McAdams is the most likely to win with just 12% picking Love.
- Most of our readers (53%) said Love would win while 40% said McAdams would. A handful voted for the other Democratic candidates in the race.
Selected anonymous comments:
If Doug Owens couldn’t win, there is no way McAdams wins. Put me down for a bet on Mia winning with 53% or higher.
Just think #failedhomelessshelter. Can’t get a homeless shelter located but you will change DC? Really?
Love will win a close race against McAdams unless she does something stupid.
Ben McAdams has so much potential but has shown no stomach for negative campaigning. He is going to get hit hard and have nowhere to go. The Justin Miller stuff is going to come back to haunt him, and he handled that so poorly that the electorate that doesn’t know him won’t have a reason to jump from Mia Love. He will have a hard time pinning Love to Trump. This is just a silly move for someone that could run a different race.
Love has been undistinguished, while McAdams has had pretty good results in a very difficult spot.
If the CMV ballot initiative gets on the ballot, a Democrat has no chance because it will increase conservative turnout.
Don’t underestimate the impact an initiative can have on who turns out to vote in 2018. In other states with lower initiative thresholds, it’s a common practice to do a ballot initiative with the only goal of mobilizing your base. Medical marijuana helps Ben. Education funding helps Ben. Medicaid expansion helps Ben. Even if only one or two of those issues qualify for the ballot, it should be worth 5-7 percent for McAdams.
McAdams is moderate, he’s bright, has high name I.D. and is engaging…and oh, yeah…he’s an active Latter-day Saint! He’s going to be formidable.
Love is still “most likely,” but McAdams could give her a real run.
Donald Trump’s coattails will help McAdams.
It will be close, but in the end, Mia Love will prevail.
It will be tighter than it should be because of the disarray the Republican Party is in. But Mia will win.
Unless Mia Love distances herself (soon) from the man occupying the Oval Office, I think his numbers will continue downward, dragging her with him.
Can Rep. Love run on a record? Mayor McAdams can. Also, orange bus.
Mia should have held a town hall and spoken up against Trump.
Very negative campaigning from both sides. Hard fought race with Love taking 52% of the vote.
Ben has bitten off more than he can chew.
This is a fundamentally Republican-leaning district which makes it difficult for a Democrat to win. Let alone a carpetbagger like Ben McAdams who if he wants to run for Congress, should run to represent the district he lives in. Rep. Love will win a 3rd term. It may be close, but she’ll pull it off.
The power of incumbency is about money and name ID. Mia and Ben will both have money, but I suspect Ben’s name ID will be higher than Mia’s.
She’s a conservative Republican and has not done anything to hurt herself.
Ben will win. Even with the millions, the National GOP will pour into the race. It’s always about the candidate and Ben is a top candidate.
I want McAdams to win, but I’m afraid the “R” will get Love elected again.
It will be a tough race between Mia and Ben, but Mia will be able to pull it off with the GOP backing.
Mia Love is worried, as shown by her recent reaction to McAdams’ announcement. He might be the only “D” in the state with the ability to beat her.
McAdams is without a doubt the most capable democrat in the state, and the state party would be wise to follow his lead instead of the lead of Dabakis and company. Congresswoman Love is the only member of the delegation to somewhat stand up to Trump, plus she is battle tested. Will the stain of Pelosi and “liberals” or an anti-Trump wave carry the day? Regardless, McAdams will be scarred from the race.
Too close to call.
A far-less beloved candidate gave Congresswoman Love a real run for her money once. McAdams would have likely beaten her last time when she was most vulnerable. He has enough support to beat her.
There’s just enough Republicans (myself included) who have seen through Mia’s fake veneer. They saw her turn away hosting a town hall and large groups of constituents because she’s not able to withstand tough questions. Republicans who had looked at her sparse record, who know the truth that she did very little in Saratoga Springs as Mayor and left things worse. The truth is out there, and it is enough to tip things to Ben McAdams.
McAdams will close the gap compared to Doug Owens’ lackluster results. But Love will come out on top.
I know Utah Dems fantasize about Ben McAdams, and he’s been coddled by media coverage, but he’ll be exposed in a tough race. Rep. Love will once again stave off desperate attempts to eliminate her voice.
