New internal polling from Democrat Ben McAdams’ campaign shows the race in Utah’s 4th CD is a virtual tie.
McAdams, who is challenging two-term incumbent Republican Mia Love, released the numbers on Wednesday morning.
The internal poll paid for by McAdams’ campaign and conducted by The Mellman Group, shows Love with a 43-40% lead over McAdams, which is within the poll’s margin of error.
The polling memo notes Love has a much-higher name ID than McAdams (91-60%).
According to the survey, Love has a net negative job approval rating of minus six. 43% of respondents in the survey give Love a positive job rating while 49% view her negatively. McAdams has a net positive rating according to the survey, with 47% viewing him positively versus 31% negative (net +16).
A UtahPolicy.com survey from February found Love with a 6-point lead over McAdams, 49-43%. That same survey gave Love a +16 net job approval rating, while McAdams had a +46 net approval, but 23% did not express an opinion about McAdams.
The McAdams poll suggests President Donald Trump will not be a benefit to Love in the 2018 midterms. Trump won the 4th CD by just 7 points in 2016. The survey says 68% of residents have a negative view of Trump, while only 31% are positive about his time in the White House.
In an email statement, McAdams campaign manager Andrew Roberts said, “Ben’s track record of working together to get things done on issues that matter to Utah families resonates with voters. Utahns want to move beyond the broken politics of Washington and see elected officials find solutions and make progress,” said Campaign Manager Andrew Roberts. “This poll validates that Ben is the type of optimistic, can-do leader that Utah families want to represent them.”
Mia Love’s pollster, Scott Riding, took issue with McAdams’ poll numbers in a statement, saying their own internal numbers were more in line with the recent UtahPolicy.com/Dan Jones poll.
“Out of state pollsters have a terrible track record in this district. Our numbers match those released recently by UtahPolicy.com and Dan Jones and Associates, which show a healthy lead for the Congresswoman, fewer undecided voters, and no movement in the last few months despite McAdams’ full-time campaign. Democratic voters trying to decide between the Mayor and the other four qualified Democratic candidates should focus less on unproven horserace polls and more on McAdams’ vague and evasive issue positions,” said Riding.
The Mellman Group survey was conducted February 27-March 4, 2018 among 400 likely voters in Utah’s 4th District. It has a margin of error +/-4.9%.
