Politico flags a story from National Journal that says there will be at least 162 first and second term lawmakers in the next Congress. That number could go higher than the 181 we saw after the 1994 elections.
There are currently 100 freshman House members, up from the start of the current Congress because of the special elections that added Kathy Hochul, Mark Amodei et al to the ranks. That's the most since after 1992, when redistricting and the House banking scandal combined to put 110 freshmen in the House, according to the Cong. Research Service.
— On top of that, there are currently 62 open CDs scattered across the country, guaranteeing a high floor for the next freshman class. Some veteran members will surely lose, but a minimum of 162 freshmen and sophomores has already been set for next year. (We counted 132 at the start of 2011.)
— That is already higher than all but one total over the last 20 years; after the 1994 GOP wave, there were 181 freshmen and sophomores, according to a review of old cong. rosters. If just 20 veterans lose, the next Congress could top that, and over 40% — perhaps even close to 50% — of the House would be relatively inexperienced as Congress prepares to tackle enormous issues like tax reform and repairing the budget. Some issues will surely need attending after what's poised to be a packed lame duck session.
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