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Wednesday Buzz

We can say it now: Campaign crunch time is here. 13 days to go for the three big primaries: Nolan Karras vs. Jon Huntsman, Jr., Tim Bridgewater vs. John Swallow, Chris Cannon vs. Matt Throckmorton. Voters will now start paying attention. The statements and activities of candidates will undergo closer scrutiny. Mistakes will be magnified. The news media will increase campaign coverage. Groups supporting or opposing candidates will spring up and become more vocal. The campaigns themselves will become more intense. Campaign workers will pull all-nighters. Final strategy will be established and executed. It’s win or go home.

Candidates who are trailing will become more desperate over the next several days. They need to start to see some movement in the tracking polls if their campaigns are going to catch fire and overtake the frontrunners. In other states, we might start to see some overt negative campaigning, although I don’t expect that to occur here, at least from the official campaigns. However, we are already seeing independent groups and individuals go on the attack, mostly against Huntsman. I don’t think true negative campaigning works in Utah. It usually creates a backlash and more sympathy for the candidate attacked.

We’ll also see more polling results being released. The news media will do surveys; interest groups will do surveys, the candidates will do surveys, and also nightly tracking polls. Read surveys warily. If done properly, they are good snapshots of public opinion when the research was done. But they don’t predict the future. It’s easy to do polls; it’s much harder to survey those who will actually vote in a low-turnout primary. Figuring out who will really vote is the tough part of survey research.

Let’s say a poll released to the public shows one candidate ahead and the other behind. Which candidate is helped most by the survey? Do the numbers motivate supporters of the trailing candidate to work harder and turn out to vote, while lulling the leading candidate supporters into complacency? Or does the survey discourage the lagging campaign and dry up money, while energizing the winning campaign? Consider those questions as survey numbers are released.

LaVarr Webb

Tip:
Political Opinion Research

Ronald T. Nielson of NSØN Opinion Research in Salt Lake City has written an interesting article on political polling. He gives advice to research firms who might want to do political research. While not all of the article is applicable to candidates or organizations commissioning research, it is interesting to view opinion research from the perspective of the survey research firm. Click here to read the article.

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Wednesday, June 9, 2004

Today's Headlines

Washington Times
- Hatch favoritism worries GOP

Boulder Daily Camera
- Wolf management plan in works

San Francisco Chronicle
- A call to ease stem cell restrictions: 58 senators ask Bush to reconsider limits on research

Associated Press
- Gov. Walker declares Friday statewide day of mourning
- The Grand Canyon is ailing, but panel can't agree on a prescription

KSL
- Mayor Anderson wants guns out of kids' hands
- Editorial: Expand the Salt Palace

Davis County Clipper
- Engineers, UDOT compare Wal-Mart traffic studies
- Planners work to ease concerns over light rail
- Public weighs in on land use plan

Standard-Examiner
- Boys learn from Davis leaders
- Voters getting RAMP tax say
- Commission urges voters to polls
- Ogden chief backs budget plan

Deseret Morning News
- 3 rivals pledge to limit terms
- Clear vision: Reagan's spirituality impressed his Utah aide
- Rep. Bird snuffs rumors
- Cannon fancies Geneva as hub
- Utah is still last in ed spending
- Fest still plans Reagan tribute
- County may cut positions
- Several speak up for religious rights
- Path cleared for LDS to buy Triad property
- Lee Davidson: Coattail effect could play a role in 2nd District
- Editorial: A strange education plan

Salt Lake Tribune
- Jail option swings open
- It's Showtime! Utahn makes cut to 'run' for office
- County, city back plan for Palace expansion
- Governor protests BLM sale of oil, gas leases in Wyoming
- Panel weighs public assertions of faith
- Utah County takes road less traveled: Roads
- Campaign money pouring in for incumbent Cannon
- S.L. County mayor sees a silver lining in fuel scandal
- S.L. County auditor job may get the ax
- Editorial: Keep mercury out

Political Calendar

Please submit calendar items to AgendaUtah@UtahPolicy.com

- June 9: Kitchen Table Talk with Nolan Karras, 5:30-7:00pm, home of Lew & Patrice Swain, 1688 North Canyon Circle, Farmington.
- June 10: Gubernatorial debate, Huntsman vs. Karras, 9-10 a.m., SLC Library Auditorium. Sponsored by the Salt Lake Chamber, co-sponsored by the Utah Foundation and KCPW Radio. Broadcast live on KCPW 88.3 and 105.3 FM. Space is limited so arrive early.
- June 10: Kitchen Table Talk with Enid Greene, 8-9:30 pm, home of Brett Graham, 2227 Lauri Kay Dr, Holladay. (Correction)
- June 10: Fundraiser for Salt Lake County Council candidate Jenny Wilson, 7:30-9 a.m., Alta Club, 100 East South Temple. $100 individual, $250 business, $500 sponsorship. RSVP to 801-201-8442 or lashman@xmission.com. (Correction)
- June 10: Government Affairs Advisory Committee of the Salt Lake Chamber 11am, Eccles Board Room, Salt Lake Chamber.
June 11: Davis County Republican family “Remember President Reagan” picnic, 6-8:30 pm, Farmington Main Park, 100 S. Main. $5 per person for picnic food. Speakers will share personal experiences with President Reagan. RSVP: 294-4811.
June 12: Kitchen Table Talk with Nolan Karras, 2-4 pm, home of Nathan Alder, 1757 E. Mountain View Dr, SLC.
- June 12: Utah House Democrats Fundraiser, Barbeque & Stingers Baseball, 5:30-9:30pm, Franklin Covey Field, SLC. RSVP by June 2, 3620 South 6000 West, West Valley City, UT 84120. For info call 801-328-2208.
- June 12: Davis County Democrats No-Host Breakfast 8:30 am to 10:00 am, Joanie's Restaurant, 286 North 400 West, Kaysville. Contact: Richard Watson (801) 292-6772.
- June 13: Gubernatorial Debate: Take Two with Rod Decker Live on KUTV Channel 2 at 5:30 pm, Contact Rod Decker, (801) 973-3000.
- June 14: Lt. Governor Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452
June 14: Meet Nolan Karras, 12-2 pm, Brigham City Community Center, 24 North 300 West, Brigham City.
June 14: Meet Nolan Karras & Enid Greene, 4-5:30 pm, Pilkington Metal Finishing, 1225 S Legacy View Dr (5710 W), SLC, hosted by Nyla & Marlon Berrett.
- June 15: Gubernatorial Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452.
- June 16: Ogden Rotary Gubernatorial Debate, noon at the Ogden Eccles Conference Center.
- June 16: Greg Skordas for Attorney General Fundraiser, 5-7pm, Urban Bistro, 216 East 500 South, SLC. Suggested Donation $50/person.
June 16: Ogden Brown Bag Lunch with Enid Greene, 12-1 pm, MarketStar Auditorium, 2475 Washington Blvd, Ogden.
- June 18: Meet Nolan Karras, 6-7pm, Lehi City Council Chambers, Lehi Administration Bldg., 153 N 100 E, Lehi.
- June 18: Kitchen Table Talk with Nolan Karras, 8-9:30 pm, home of Jeanette Hales Beckham, 1260 E. Oak Crest Circle, Provo.
June 19: Utah County Meet the Candidates, 12-4 pm, Pioneer Park, 500 W Center St, Provo.
- June 21: Gubernatorial Debate: KUED Channel 7 Live at 9:00 pm.
- June 22: Utah Primary Election 7:00 am to 8:00 pm.
- June 22: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting 12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
- June 24: Legislative Golf Tournament Thanksgiving Point. 533-9777.
- June 26: Republican Central Committee Meeting.
- June 27: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting 12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
- July 7: Utah Stonewall Democrats, 5:30 pm, GLBT Community Center Multi-purpose Room, 359 North 300 West, SLC.
- July 19-23: National Conference of State Legislatures  Salt Lake City.

See the entire calendar.