Welcome to the first day of summer, the longest day of the year, and the last full day of primary election campaigning. Days get shorter now, so autumn and the November election are lurking around the corner. Because every vote counts, the longest day will seem pretty short to smart candidates in tight races who will campaign in a frenzy today to reach every possible voter.
News Highlights
It was a busy weekend for political news. Check out all the headline links to the right. Today The Salt Lake Tribune looks at whether the closed Republican primary will anger voters and keep independent, but conservative, voters away from the polls.
Comparing the Weekend Polls
Both Salt Lake daily newspapers published primary election surveys over the weekend and it's interesting to compare the results. The numbers in the two polls, one done by Dan Jones & Associates for the Deseret Morning News and the other by Valley Research for the Salt Lake Tribune , were nearly identical in the gubernatorial race, but quite different in the two congressional contests.
The surveys indicated that, barring some miracle, Jon Huntsman, Jr., with a lead of more than 35 points, will defeat Nolan Karras Tuesday night. The newspapers polled through Thursday, June 17, so Karras would have to have enormous momentum the last five days to get within striking distance. The only other hope for Karras is that the turnout is very low and the surveys didn't get good samples of people who will actually vote. But with Huntsman showing strength in all demographic and other categories, including those most interested in the race and those who say they will vote, that's really too much to expect.
The Dan Jones poll in the Morning News shows the congressional races much closer than the numbers in the Tribune's Valley Research poll. The spread in the 3rd District is 21 points in the Morning News, versus 40 points in the Tribune. The Morning News has the 2nd District race almost a dead heat, with a 5-point spread, compared to a 17-point spread in the Tribune.
The Morning News poll used 300 interviews in each of the congressional districts, while the Tribune poll used sample sizes of only 141 in the 2nd District and a tiny 68 in the 3rd, meaning possible error margins are very high. Neither survey is meant to predict Tuesday's outcome, but I would have a lot more confidence in the Dan Jones survey in the congressional races. I would be worried about even publishing a head-to-head political poll with a sample size of only 68.
One of the more interesting things in the Tribune poll was the matching of the two Republican finalists against Democratic nominee Scott Matheson, Jr., showing the Democrat clearly within striking distance of Huntsman. The poll showed Matheson beating Karras 49.5% to 34.7%, and trailing Huntsman by 13 points, 34.7% to 48.9%. That's actually pretty remarkable, considering Matheson has been relatively invisible while all the attention has been on the Republican primary. The numbers ought to make Utah Democrats happy.
- LaVarr Webb
Governor
Tribune: Huntsman, 57%; Karras, 20.3%; Undecided, 20.9%
Morning News: Huntsman, 57%; Karras, 18%; Undecided/other, 18%
2nd Congressional District
Tribune: Swallow, 38.5%; Bridgewater ; 21.7%, Undecided; 38.8%
Morning News: Swallow, 29%, Bridgewater , 24%, Undecided/other, 37%
3rd Congessional District
Tribune: Cannon, 52.6%; Throckmorton, 13.0%; Undecided, 34.4%
Morning News: Cannon, 44%; Throckmorton, 23%; Undecided/other, 24%
Morning News sample size was 909 statewide (error margin + 3.3%), about 300 in the two congressional districts (error margin + 5.5%), conducted June 14-17.
Tribune sample size was 400 registered voters conducted June 10-15, with additional sampling on June 17. Gubernatorial sampling was 444 registered voters with margin error of + 4.65%. Sample size on congressional districts were very small (141 in District 2, + 8.3% error margin, and only 68 in District 3, + 11.9% error margin).
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