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Monday's Buzz:

"Just tell Jon Sr. to be warned that if you guys decide you are going to go negative on Nolan, hell hath no fury. We have a lot of s--- on Jon Huntsman Sr. and junior that we've not used, but if he is going to play that game, we will play that one, too."

Spencer Stokes holds at least three distinctions in Utah politics.

• He's now the best-known volunteer in any campaign.

• He delivered the most famous quote (so far) of the 2004 election campaign, upstaging Enid Green's convention crowd-pleaser: “I chose the wrong man once. I'm not going to make that mistake again!”

• He immortalized that quote by recording it in a political rival's voice mail.

Besides eliciting an exclamation like, “Duh! What was he thinking?” this mini-scandal raises some important questions:  What does it really mean to “go negative?” Where is the fine line between showing distinctions/ contrasts and negative campaigning? Is negative campaigning effective?

Earlybird asked consultants of The Exoro Group to comment:

Bart Barker: First, what does it really mean to “go negative?” Where is the line?

Negative campaigning can be of two types. The first is criticizing your opponent and his record rather than simply stating what you would do in a positive way. I prefer to hear a candidate's goals and values than what he or she thinks is wrong with the opponent. Nevertheless, while I would not do it, this type of “appropriate” negative campaigning is fair game as long as the criticisms are truthful and fair.

The other type of negative campaigning involves personal attacks or deliberately misstating or misconstruing your opponent's record. This is far too common. Campaigns rationalize it because they believe it is the only way to win some elections. That may be true, but I still don't think it's justified. Better you should lose. Some might suggest going negative in this way is justified if the opponent is extremely rotten and must be defeated at all costs. But then you have two nasty candidates and eventually an elected official with questionable integrity.

Both methods of going negative—the “appropriate” and “inappropriate” ways—can work in Utah and elsewhere. That's all we have seen since half a dozen Democrats began running for president a year ago. We've seen both types of negative.

In the Huntsman-Karras campaign we haven't seen either candidate really go negative, even in the first way. But their surrogates have begun to do it and the candidates can't distance themselves from their campaigns. Whether it's a whispering campaign of rumors or an open attack, if the campaign is doing it the candidate is guilty unless he or she publicly renounces it and then takes clear action against the offending staff members.

Representative Chris Cannon is under attack by a national anti-immigration group. What is odd is the point of their negative campaign. They don't really seem to be misstating the facts but they are using sleight of hand. As far as I can tell, the two sides aren't even debating the same thing. Cannon has backed President Bush's effort to deal with illegal immigration. The anti-Cannon group's ads seem to oppose all immigration, not just illegal. Cannon's response ads are an effective response and he does not attack his opponents. But his Primary Election opponent Matt Throckmorton has made immigration just about his only issue and it could turn nasty.

The Bridgewater-Swallow campaign in the Second Congressional District became negative two years ago and everyone seems to expect the same this year. We haven't seen much of that so far, though.

Hugh Matheson: Sometimes “going negative” works, but sometimes it violently backfires (just ask the guys who decided to attack Bill Orton for being unmarried during his first congressional race).

What's the secret? Always remember that voter behavior has its roots in emotions, especially those aroused when deeply-held values are invoked or threatened. And never assume that you know which values and emotions your negative messages are going to connect with—use careful, objective research to plumb the depths of emotions to make sure the nerve you are touching is connected to the response you want.

At a minimum, be sure you're saying something that the target audience (1) believes, (2) is already (at least latently) angry or resentful about, and (3) deems relevant to the election. Otherwise, negative messages can tarnish the sender and generate sympathy and support for the “victim.”

Political Leadership:
Don't Burn Bridges

By LaVarr Webb

Big victories and crushing defeats are inherent in politics. And along with the wins and losses come emotional ups and downs. At all levels of politics, it's easy to get mad, to hold grudges and to want to get even. Some of the nastiest battles are in neighborhood organizations, city councils and county commissions. Politics attracts big egos that are sensitive and easily bruised. Making and maintaining enemies is part of the game for some politicians.

But the smartest and best politicians don't burn bridges. Anyone who is in politics very long soon realizes that today's enemy will probably be tomorrow's ally. Issues come and go and coalitions form, disband and reform with different players. Anyone who makes real and permanent enemies hampers their chances at long-term success. It's fine to fight hard and debate hard, but once the votes are counted, it's silly and childish to hold grudges and stay angry.

In the high-tech world, Ray Noorda coined the term "co-opetition." Sometimes you compete vigorously. Sometimes you cooperate fully. That applies in politics as well as in the technology industry.

Don't take things personally. Stay calm. Get away for a while, and then make up with your opponents. Don't burn bridges because it's almost guaranteed you'll need to work together with former opponents in the future.

The Earlybird is a service of Utah Policy.com

Publisher: LaVarr Webb
Editor: Bart Barker
News: Golden Webb
Calendar and Subscriptions: Paul Hollingshead

Monday, May 24, 2004

Today's Headlines

Associated Press
- Southwest a key region for candidates

Hearst News Service
- Congress may restrict steroid `precursors' muscle supplements

St. George Spectrum
- Matheson to host veterans tribute

Daily Herald
- Editorial: Unnecessary precautions

Standard-Examiner
- Mulling digital meetings

Deseret Morning News
- Auditor Sorensen to break silence
- Search, rescue funding to change?
- Gridlock inching closer to Utah County
- Agreement is reached on plan for slag site
- Health agency boasts surplus
- Paramedic pact pleases Davis, cities
- Lawmakers look to avoid bill glut
- Leavitt takes on Great Lakes
- Hatch seeks tighter immigration law
- Editorial: Keep gun permit process
- Op-Ed: Regents balance private, public data

Salt Lake Tribune
- 4th seat may well take a back seat
- S.L. auditor to break silence, Political pressure builds over fuel-use controversy
- Rolly and Wells: Guzzlegate brings call for silence
- Legacy Highway still could open by 2008
- Editorial: In both feet

Sunday, May 23

St. George Spectrum
- Editorial: Concealed gun holders need instruction

Standard-Examiner
- N. Utah debates declined
- Partnerships will be part of defense against BRAC
- UTA rail hearings begin
- Editorial: Centerville Wal-Mart complaints are hollow
- Editorial: Senate was correct to endorse BRAC process

Deseret Morning News
- Is A.F. putting HAFB at risk?
- Bennett still has giant lead
- Report on waste criticized
- Rally stresses anti-hate issue
- If auditor stole, charges possible
- Lee Benson: This just may be Joe's year
- Rampton is chairman of Matheson campaign
- Mayor assails drug war, calls for more research
- Pignanelli & Webb: Primary will be special-interest battleground
- Editorial: No more N-tests in Nevada desert

Salt Lake Tribune
- Mullen: In GOP governor's race, wildfire season is a lit match away
- Third parties give Utah voters another choice
- High court slaps down lawmakers' new rules
- Democrats may float reward in ship-napping
- Walker, Veracruz governor further states' alliance
- Editorial: Unclear play
- Editorial: Kink in the hose

Saturday, May 22

KSL
- Mayor Anderson criticizes county's vehicle policy

Standard-Examiner
- Education, efficiency breeds better, faster and smoother force

Deseret Morning News
- Hatch: Ban gay unions
- Undocumented immigration also a Utah concern
- County auditor plays hooky
- ACLU starts appeal in 2nd plaza case
- Ex-candidate loses appeal to Demos
- An incentive for convention
- Editorial: End county car allowances

Salt Lake Tribune
- County auditor, explain this
- Attorney general candidates duel over campus guns
- Utahns boast the biggest families, and taxes prove it
- Greens drop protest; natural-gas exploration to begin
- ACLU appeals Plaza case again to 10th Circuit Court
- Minnesota freezes Utah fitness charity's assets
- Animal Liberation Front says it freed BYU critters
- Editorial: Filtering information
- Editorial: Get on board

Political Calendar

Please submit calendar items to Earlybird@UtahPolicy.com.

May 25: 3rd Congressional District GOP Candidates Debate, Chris Cannon vs Matt Throckmorton, sponsored by Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce, Daily Herald and Provo City— 7pm Provo City Council Chambers, 351 West Center Street, Provo. Contact Michael Mower, (801) 852-6103.
May 25: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
May 26: WIR Annual Conference—Eccles Conference Center, Ogden.
May 30: Howard Dean fundraiser for Peter Corroon, Democratic candidate for Salt Lake County Mayor—donuts 10:00 - 11:00 am, Millcreek Coffee Roasters, 657 South Main, SLC, $35; brunch buffet 11:30 am - 1:00 pm, Anderson Commons, 734 East 200 South, SLC, $200. 801-328-2208 or www.VoteCorroon.com.
May 30: Iron County Tax Freedom Day Governors Forum—6:00 pm, Sharwan Smith Center Ballroom, SUU, Cedar City.
June 1: Utah Log Cabin Republicans Monthly Meeting—7:30 pm, Room N4010, Salt Lake County Building, 2001 South State Street, Salt Lake.
June 3: Washington County Republican Women meeting and luncheon—11:30 am to 1:00 pm RSVP 435-688-0777
June 3: Progressive Democratic Caucus Meeting—6:30 pm to 8:00 pm, 455 South 300 East, Suite 102, Salt Lake City. Contact: Craig Axford (801) 918-6017.
June 4: Debate between John Huntsman Jr. and Nolan Karras, Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce and Daily Herald, First Friday Forum lunch—noon at the Provo Marriott Hotel . Lunch reservations, 379-2555; debate questions, Michael Mower 852-6103.
June 6: Gubernatorial Debate: On the Record with Chris Vanocur—KTVX Channel 4, 9:30 am, Contact Chris Vanocur, (801) 975-4444.
June 10, 11: Government Affairs Advisory Committee of the Salt Lake Chamber—11am, Eccles Board Room, Salt Lake Chamber.
June 12: Davis County Democrats No-Host Breakfast—8:30 am to 10:00 am, Joanie's Restaurant, 286 North 400 West, Kaysville. Contact: Richard Watson (801) 292-6772.
June 13: Gubernatorial Debate: Take Two with Rod Decker—Live on KUTV Channel 2 at 5:30 pm, Contact Rod Decker, (801) 973-3000.
June 14: Lt. Governor Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George—Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452
June 15: Gubernatorial Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George—Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452.
June 21: Gubernatorial Debate: KUED Channel 7—Live at 9:00 pm.
June 22: Utah Primary Election—7:00 am to 8:00 pm.
June 22: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
June 24: Legislative Golf Tournament—Thanksgiving Point. 533-9777.
June 26: Republican Central Committee Meeting.
June 27: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
July 19-23: National Conference of State Legislatures— Salt Lake City

See the entire calendar.