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Publisher's Note

Thanks to everyone who suggested names for this little publication (see yesterday's issue). We received dozens of responses with names mostly selected from our list, and we also appreciate the accompanying notes of support.

Some creative folks came up with their own names, among them these clever suggestions (we didn’t ask permission to use names of submitters, so we won’t, but you know who you are!): The Earlybugle, The Worm Wonk, Briefs and Shorts, The Burlyherd, The Gadfly (“using the American Heritage Dictionary definition of ‘one that acts as a constructively provocative stimulus’”), The Redeye (“because so many of the political insiders are always arriving early in the morning after returning from work in D.C. It implies hard work”). And the one that really made us laugh:

“How about . . .

     Utah’s
         Toast and Jam

“With a graphic: toast and red jam on a plate. Yellow sun rising through a rough-hewn window frame. Steaming mug of some grainy beverage...

“Toast and jam—it works on multiple levels. The toast of the town. Morning jam session with Exoro. Rep. Curtis in a jam. President Bush is toast. Whatever.

“Your ideas were fine, too.”

We will settle on a name within the next few days. It will require a bit of format redesign, but should be in place shortly. Meanwhile, we continue to welcome your suggestions. Just send them to us at Earlybird@UtahPolicy.com.

Thursday's Buzz:

News Stories You Should Read

The Deseret Morning News has some interesting stories on the coming gubernatorial ad wars (Bob Bernick), the shortage of national money in the 2nd Congressional District race (Lee Davidson), and the on-going guzzle-gate scandal in county government (Alan Edwards). The Tribune features an in-depth piece by Dan Harrie putting gubernatorial campaign fundraising in perspective.

What Will Voter Turnout Be?

Voter turnout is all-important in the June 22 primary election. To target effectively and determine their winning number (50% of the vote + 1), candidates must estimate what percentage of registered voters will actually vote, then try to determine who those voters will be. Then communicate effectively with them.

So what will voter turnout be? Early on, the conventional wisdom was that this is an exciting election year with lots of candidates, and voter turnout will be high. But I’m not expecting a record turnout. In 2000, primary turnout statewide was 19 percent, with 213,592 people voting of 1,118,041 registered voters. That year featured a congressional primary between Merrill Cook and Derek Smith, a gubernatorial primary between Mike Leavitt and Glen Davis, and an attorney general primary between Mark Shurtleff and Frank Mylar.

In 2002, with a closed Republican primary, turnout was only 12 percent statewide, with congressional contests between Democrats Donald Dunn and Dave Thomas; and Republicans Rob Bishop and Kevin Garn, and John Swallow and Tim Bridgewater.

What does that bode for this year? We have a summer primary with most citizens not paying attention; voters will have to register as Republicans to vote in the GOP primary. We have a statewide gubernatorial contest and two competitive congressional primaries. Campaigns have focused, properly so, on the ground game, grassroots organizing, with relatively little mass media exposure (although that will certainly change soon as the candidates run television ads). My guess is that turnout will be closer to the 19 percent in 2000 than the 12 percent in 2002. But I’ll be surprised if turnout runs much above the low 20s.

—LaVarr Webb

Leadership Tip:
The Power of Persistence

Ray Kroc, founder of McDonald’s, composed this truism that applies as much, or more, to politics as it does to business:

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence.

Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with great talent.

Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb.

Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts.

Persistence, determination alone are omnipotent.

The Earlybird is a service of Utah Policy.com

Publisher: LaVarr Webb
Editor: Bart Barker
News: Golden Webb
Calendar and Subscriptions: Paul Hollingshead

Thursday, June 3, 2004

Today's Headlines

Political Calendar

Please submit calendar items to Earlybird@UtahPolicy.com

- June 3: GOP Primary Debate (gubernatorial and congressional), 6:30 pm at the Rose Wagner Performing Arts Center, 138 W. 300 S. in Salt Lake City. Questions for candidates may be submitted to PrimaryDebate@aol.com. Hosted by John D. Jacob, moderated by County Recorder Gary W. Ott.
- June 3: Salt Lake County GOP Gubernatorial Debate, 5:30 pm at the Rose Wagner Performing Arts Center 138 W. 300 S. Salt Lake City.
- June 3: Kitchen Table Talk with Enid Greene, 6 pm at Greg & Lynell King's Home, 145 W. 3960 N., Provo.
- June 3: Washington County Republican Women meeting and luncheon—11:30 am to 1:00 pm RSVP 435-688-0777
- June 3: Progressive Democratic Caucus Meeting—6:30 pm to 8:00 pm, 455 South 300 East, Suite 102, Salt Lake City. Contact: Craig Axford (801) 918-6017.
- June 4: Debate between John Huntsman Jr. and Nolan Karras, Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce and Daily Herald, First Friday Forum lunch—noon at the Provo Marriott Hotel . Lunch reservations, 379-2555; debate questions, Michael Mower 852-6103.
- June 4: Davis County Republican Women Gubernatorial Debate, 6 pm at West Point Junior High School.
- June 6: Gubernatorial Debate: On the Record with Chris Vanocur—KTVX Channel 4, 9:30 am, Contact Chris Vanocur, (801) 975-4444.
- June 7-8: Innovations in Education Conference—8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Eastmont Middle School, 10100 South 1300 East, Sandy. $30 registration, including 2 box lunches and breaks. www.iie-edu.org.
- June 10: Fundraiser for Salt Lake County Council candidate Jenny Wilson, 7-9 a.m., Alta Club, 100 East South Temple. $100 individual, $250 business, $500 sponsorship. RSVP to lashman@xmission.com or 801-201-8442.
- June 10-11: Government Affairs Advisory Committee of the Salt Lake Chamber—11am, Eccles Board Room, Salt Lake Chamber.
- June 12: Davis County Democrats No-Host Breakfast—8:30 am to 10:00 am, Joanie's Restaurant, 286 North 400 West, Kaysville. Contact: Richard Watson (801) 292-6772.
- June 13: Gubernatorial Debate: Take Two with Rod Decker—Live on KUTV Channel 2 at 5:30 pm, Contact Rod Decker, (801) 973-3000.
- June 14: Lt. Governor Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George—Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452
- June 15: Gubernatorial Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George—Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452.
- June 16: Ogden Rotary Gubernatorial Debate, noon at the Ogden Eccles Conference Center.
- June 21: Gubernatorial Debate: KUED Channel 7—Live at 9:00 pm.
- June 22: Utah Primary Election—7:00 am to 8:00 pm.
- June 22: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
- June 24: Legislative Golf Tournament—Thanksgiving Point. 533-9777.
- June 26: Republican Central Committee Meeting.
- June 27: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
- July 19-23: National Conference of State Legislatures— Salt Lake City.

See the entire calendar.