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Governor’s Race. No question, Nolan Karras’ come-from-behind win at the GOP state convention was a shocker that no one anticipated, not even Karras and his supporters. Karras won a spot in the primary by starting second only to Jon Huntsman with first place votes, then hanging on through subsequent rounds and staying ahead of Olene Walker until she went out, then taking the lion’s share of Walker’s votes.

This sets up a fascinating primary, and anyone who thinks Huntsman will easily defeat Karras will be sadly mistaken. In many ways, Karras will be a tougher opponent for Huntsman than Lampropoulos or Walker would have been.

It will be a short, intense race, only six weeks long, and there won’t be a lot of room for error. Money, alone, won’t win it. Huntsman clearly starts out with some advantages, but Karras has significant strengths as well. We’ll talk a lot more in future Earlybirds about campaign strategies and tactics, and the strengths and weakness of the candidates.

Congressional Contests. The Republicans have set themselves up for some acrimonious contests in the 2nd and 3rd districts, which should make Democrats very happy. John Swallow was talking 60 percent, but again showed he has a hard time connecting with party activists. Tim Bridgewater beat him by 100 delegate votes, despite the fact that Swallow had more money and a higher profile. This is going to be a nasty primary and the winner will be the one who most effectively targets and communicates with the active voters who will actually vote in a June primary.

In the 3rd District, Chris Cannon will beat Matt Throckmorton, but it will be a painful primary. Immigration is a complex issue, far easier to exploit and demagogue than explain to voters. Cannon is absolutely going to have to run hard, target carefully and communicate effectively.

Monday:
Communications Tip

Personalize, Symbolize and Simplify
By LaVarr Webb

Political communications projects are complex operations, whether we're talking about a speech, a television ad or a direct mail piece. It is crucial to clearly understand objectives, audiences, messages, and delivery channels. But that's not enough. Once those elements are determined, it's also important to symbolize, personalize and simplify.

Symbolize . What communicates the message without words? What symbol will people immediately recognize and understand what we're trying to communicate?

Personalize . Who are the real people impacted by this issue? How can they be used to clearly illustrate the issue or message?

Simplify . What is the headline? What is the sound bite? If you can't communicate your message in a headline, you're not prepared to discuss the issue.

This is crucial, because if we don't symbolize, personalize and simplify, the opposition or the news media will do it for us. Every fight is a fight over symbols. If we don't explain the issue using our symbols, the media or the opposition will do it using their symbols. If we don't communicate through the eyes of real people, the opposition or news media will do it for us. Editors always want to know how an issue affects real people's lives. We must reduce the message to a headline, a sound bite, because that's exactly what the news media will do. Using symbols, personalization and simplification we can frame the issue on our terms. Or, we can allow the opposition or news media to frame it on their terms. This applies to press releases, white papers, speeches, talk shows, advertisements, etc. To communicate effectively, our positions must be driven home through symbols, personalization and simple sound bites.

Earlybird will provide more examples and discussion of effective communications in future editions.