Today's key developments and analysis for Utah policymakers

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Monday's Buzz:
Primary Election Watch
The Endorsement Battle

After surviving a wild and hectic convention, campaigns in primary races can be forgiven for taking a few days to retool. But with 5 short weeks until another "win or go home" election, candidates had better have their campaigns clicking on all cylinders by today.

For Nolan Karras, Jon Huntsman, Tim Bridgewater, John Swallow, Chris Cannon and Matt Throckmorton, the time between now and June 22 will fly by in an instant.

Transitioning from a convention battle to a primary election fight is not something that happens quickly or easily. Suddenly, the universe of voters is much larger. Suddenly, the campaign has to get a lot bigger. The grassroots "ground war" is as crucial as ever, but the campaigns must also execute an "air war" that conveys the main campaign themes and reaches more people.

The organizational skills of campaigns and candidates will be put to the test as they recruit and deploy a network of surrogates and supporters all across the state. Despite this being a big election, the primary election turnout will be relatively sparse, and successful candidates will organize by counties and legislative districts, right down to voting precinct level. Of crucial importance will be identifying those likely to vote in the primary and concentrating nearly all efforts on them, rather than wasting resources on people who won't vote.

Meanwhile, the battle to win the endorsements of defeated candidates is underway in the Huntsman/Karras race, and Huntsman seems to be winning. Karras was initially the most aggressive in soliciting endorsements from the candidates who lost in the state convention. But a lot of feelings were hurt before and during the convention, with a lot of the anger directed at Karras, or at least his campaign operatives. Of the four major losing candidates, none seem inclined to endorse Karras. Olene Walker, as incumbent governor, says she will stay out, although she calls Karras a good friend. Marty Stephens was naturally angry at the last-minute credit union attacks against him. Karras personally had nothing to do with that, but he still gets tarnished because of the close ties some of his campaign leaders have with the big credit unions.

Fred Lampropoulos was Karras' biggest hope for an endorsement, but after meetings with both Huntsman and Karras, Lampropoulos seems to be leaning toward endorsing Huntsman. Finally, Jim Hansen will likely stay out or possibly endorse Huntsman. Lampropoulos was hurt by whisper campaigns that some people traced to Karras campaign operatives and Hansen was upset that Rep. Rob Bishop endorsed Karras after Hansen had helped Bishop with committee assignments and other things in his first term.

So Huntsman will likely get at least a few endorsements from the former candidates, and Karras may not get any.

Rep. Chris Cannon has found his campaign for re-election thrust into the middle of a national debate on immigration policies. He is being targeted by national anti-immigration groups and can expect more stories like one posted last week on a conservative Web site.

Political Trivia

• Of the 10 top-performing congressional districts for George Bush in 2000, all but two were in Texas. The two non-Texas districts were Alabama's 6th District and Utah's 3rd District, held by Rep. Chris Cannon. In the top 10 districts, Bush's winning percentage ranged from 77.7 percent to 71.6 percent. Bush won with 74.6 percent of the vote in Utah's 3rd District, which was tied for third place in the top 10 with Texas 13.

• How much must Jim Matheson buck the Bush tide in 2004? We get an idea by comparing Matheson's 2002 winning percentage with Bush's performance in 2000. The 2002 2nd District contest between Matheson and John Swallow was among the closest House elections in 2002. In fact, it was the fourth closest race in the country. Measured against the winning margin of President Bush in 2000 in his district, Matheson had the second toughest race in the country. Matheson barely won with 49 percent of the vote, while Bush won 67 percent of the 2000 vote in the district, a daunting 18-point gap. The only higher gap in the country was in Texas' 17th District, where Democrat Charles Stenholm won with 51 percent of the vote in 2002 and Bush won in 2000 with a whopping 72.2 percent, a 21-point gap. With Bush on the ballot this year, both Jim Matheson and Scott Matheson must somehow buck the tide, convincing a large chunk of Bush voters to switch to the Democratic side as they move down the ballot.

(Source: 2004 Almanac of American Politics, published by National Journal Group)

The Earlybird is a service of Utah Policy.com

Publisher: LaVarr Webb
Editor: Bart Barker
News and Calendar Manager: Golden Webb
Subscription Manager: Paul Hollingshead

Monday, May 17, 2004

Today's Headlines

National Review Online
- Fighting Filibusters

Washington Times
- Op-Ed: The bench vs. people

USA Today
- Next up is battle for recognition

San Francisco Chronicle
- Bans on state ballots could benefit Bush: Conservatives would gain most from get-out-the-vote campaign

New York Times
- Backers of Gay Marriage Ban Find Tepid Response in Pews

Associated Press
- Huntsman Stretches Ahead of Karras in New Poll

Daily Herald
- Commissioners to discuss sales tax for transportation
- Cities consider improving controls on sign pollution

Standard-Examiner
- Brigham plan to get UDOT input
- Centerville Wal-Mart proposal moving slowly ahead to final decision
- Editorial: Ogden redevelopment plate now bursting

Deseret Morning News
- Brown set the tone for change in Utah
- Coalition calls for filters at libraries
- 2nd District race looks a lot like '02 matchup
- Ripples spread as gas costs go up

Salt Lake Tribune
- Brown v. Board: A question of priority
- Brown v. Board: Civil rights meet a new era
- Northern Utes explore separate schools
- Public gets say in SLC revamp
- Rolly and Wells: Qwest may meet its match
- Utahn steeled for Senate confirmation hearings
- Editorial: Arbitration again

Sunday, May 16

Associated Press
- Tax-funded group continues to deny open-records request

St. George Spectrum
- DONT Group offers forum on nuclear testing
- Editorial: Nuclear propoganda won't play here in the real world
- Editorial: Speak out on potential for nuke tests

Daily Herald
- Mass transit an old idea in Utah County

Standard-Examiner
- North Ogden budget hike minimal

Deseret Morning News
- Huntsman holds big early lead
- Many Utahns may get new 'reading tax'
- 80% approve of Walker
- Getting on in years
- Pignanelli & Webb: Huntsman-Karras will be exciting race

Salt Lake Tribune
- Editorial: Sea of signs

Saturday, May 15

Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
- Ex-GOP strategist headed back to jail

Los Angeles Times
- Budget Seeks 75% of Awards for Damages

Associated Press
- Utah Man Accused of Scheming Schools
- Unexplored land offered in BLM auction

Salt Lake City Weekly
- Paper Chase
- Trib-ulation

Standard-Examiner
- Hill downsizing feared
- Davis summit a business smorgasbord
- Delay hampers Legacy Highway
- Elected official defends position
- Perry officials face complaints
- Editorial: East Layton project a model for other cities

Deseret Morning News
- Utahns stand behind Bush
- UTOPIA moves ahead
- Task force tackles state tax troubles

Salt Lake Tribune
- Workman offers expansion plan for Salt Palace
- They ride in style, thanks to taxpayers
- Tax-funded group keeps books secret
- Gay-marriage backers roll into town

Political Calendar

May 18: Utah Legislature:
• Task Force Studying Water Issues, 8:30am - 10:30am Room 303 State Capitol
• Legislative Management Committee, 2:30pm Room 303 State Capitol
• Hazardous Waste Regulation and Tax Policy Task Force, 3pm Room 403 State Capitol
May 19: Voice for Moderation Monthly Meeting6 p.m., Foothill Anderson Library, 1135 S. 2100 East.
May 19: Utah Legislature:
• Workforce Services and Community and Economic Development Interim Committee, 9am Room W25 House Building
• Revenue and Taxation Interim Committee, 9am Room W135 House Building
• Judiciary Interim Committee, 9am Room W130 House Building
• Natural Resources, Agriculture, and Environment Interim Committee, 9am Room 403 State Capitol
• Transportation Interim Committee, 9am Legacy Parkway Site
• Motion Picture Task Force, 1:15pm Room W130 House Building
• Health and Human Services Interim Committee, 2pm Room 403 State Capitol
• Education Interim Committee, 2pm Room 303 State Capitol
• Business and Labor Interim Committee, 2pm Room W135 House Building
• Political Subdivisions Interim Committee, 2pm Room W25 House Building
• Public Utilities and Technology Interim Committee, 2pm Room W20 House Building
May 25: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting-12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
May 26: WIR Annual Conference-Eccles Conference Center, Ogden.
May 26: Governor's Candidate Forum, Utah Taxpayers Association-12:00 pm, Little America Ballroom, Salt Lake City.
May 30: Iron County Tax Freedom Day Governors Forum-6:00 pm, Sharwan Smith Center Ballroom, SUU, Cedar City.
June 1: Utah Log Cabin Republicans Monthly Meeting-7:30 pm, Room N4010, Salt Lake County Building, 2001 South State Street, Salt Lake.
June 3: Progressive Democratic Caucus Meeting-6:30 pm to 8:00 pm, 455 South 300 East, Suite 102, Salt Lake City. Contact: Craig Axford (801) 918-6017.
June 4: Debate between John Huntsman Jr. and Nolan Karras, Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce and Daily Herald , First Friday Forum lunch-noon at the Provo Marriott Hotel . Lunch reservations, 379-2555; debate questions, Michael Mower 852-6103 .
June 10, 11: Government Affairs Advisory Committee of the Salt Lake Chamber, 11am Eccles Board Room, Salt Lake Chamber.
June 12: Davis County Democrats No-Host Breakfast-8:30 am to 10:00 am, Joanie's Restaurant, 286 North 400 West, Kaysville. Contact: Richard Watson (801) 292-6772.
June 22: Utah Primary Election-7:00 am to 8:00 pm.
June 22: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting-12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
June 24: Legislative Golf Tournament, Thanksgiving Point. 533-9777.
June 26: Republican Central Committee Meeting.
June 27: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting-12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
July 19-23: National Conference of State Legislatures, Salt Lake City

See the entire calendar.