Today's key developments and analysis for Utah policymakers

Forward The Earlybird to a friend
Subscribe or unsubscribe

A service of

Monday's Buzz

You can count on this: The June 22 primary election contests will be a lot closer than the margins indicated in the recent Deseret Morning News/KSL survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates and published over the last few days.

The reason is simple. The survey sampled the general public, not necessarily those who will actually vote on June 22. While the numbers are no doubt accurate, relevant and interesting, they aren't designed to predict the primary election outcome or even offer a snapshot of primary voters today.

So Jon Huntsman, John Swallow and Chris Cannon ought not to take comfort in their big leads. And Nolan Karras, Tim Bridgewater and Matt Throckmorton ought not to be too discouraged.

Dan Jones is Utah's most prolific and visible pollster, and he works incredibly hard to get his numbers right. He gets good samples and the News/KSL survey, no doubt, accurately measured the sentiments of the general public, including both Republicans and Democrats. However, the general public is not even focused on politics at this point, so the survey was mostly a measure of name identification and those with the highest name ID came out well ahead, as might be expected.

Only a couple hundred thousand Republicans are expected to vote in the primary, fewer than 10 percent of the overall population. And that 10 percent is a lot more interested and focused on the election than the general public. So I'm willing to bet that if a careful sample were drawn from that 10 percent, the races would be closer.

Huntsman, Swallow and Cannon can be accurately labeled as frontrunners, and they start with significant advantages. If they run smart, aggressive campaigns they ought to win. What happened in the convention, however, can also happen in the primary election. When delegates really focused on the candidates and learned about them, the numbers started to move. The substance and capability of Karras and Bridgewater came through and they got hot at the end. Watch for things to start getting interesting in these races when voters start to focus about the second week in June.

—LaVarr Webb

Communications Tip
“Real and Right”:
Use Symbols to Deliver Messages

On the first day of a legislative session a few years ago, Utah lawmakers were seen on TV ripping pages out of a Utah Code book. In his State of the Union speeches, you could count on Pres. Bill Clinton introducing people in the audience whose life experiences illustrated points he was making in his speech. In his first gubernatorial campaign, Mike Leavitt communicated his basic values of family devotion, frugality and hard work, not by describing those values, but by telling a story about his grandfather and a tractor.

Those are all examples of the use of symbols in political communications. Did they work?  Of course they did. Like a charm. Do you believe TV news would have done a dry story about Republicans repealing obscure and outdated laws without the visual of them tearing out those pages? Would Clinton have been as effective as a speaker without his “real people” examples?  Would Leavitt have so quickly endeared himself to Utahns without the images of that John Deere tractor and his grandfather telling him that if you do what is “real and right” then things will work out?

In giving a speech, participating in a debate, writing a TV or radio spot or creating a direct mail piece, successful politicians use symbols effectively. People remember symbols. They remember stories that illustrate a point or a value or a priority. They remember how an issue impacts real people. In any political controversy, in any effort at political communications, smart leaders think, “What is the best symbol to use to deliver my message?”

Here's a true story: In another state, the government shut down a day care center because of unsafe conditions. One TV crew arrived as an inspector was going through the center and pointed out the safety problems. The story that night focused on the unsafe conditions and the government was the hero. Another channel's TV crew arrived on the scene just as a young mother was attempting to drop off her child, only to find the center shut down. The woman was in tears because she had to get to work and had no alternative for her child and she believed the center was safe. In that story, the government was a tyrant.

Same story. Much different symbols. Opposite results. Here's the lesson: If you don't pick the symbols, your opponent or the news media will. The news media almost always communicate through symbols, through real people whose lives illustrate the story. Editors always tell reporters: “Tell me how this issue impacts real people.” You need to suggest the symbols for the story.

In the controversy over medical arbitration, what is the symbol?  Is it a confused patient refused service if she doesn't sign away her right to a court trial?  Or is it a greedy malpractice lawyer who is driving up medical costs for everyone? Obviously, which symbol is used by the media determines who wins the public opinion battle.

Whenever a controversy or issue arises, whenever there is an opportunity to communicate, a smart politician asks:  “What are the symbols here?”

—LaVarr Webb

The Earlybird is a service of Utah Policy.com

Publisher: LaVarr Webb
Editor: Bart Barker
News: Golden Webb
Subscriptions: Paul Hollingshead

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

Today's Headlines

Associated Press
- A look at what lies ahead in the nation's debate over same-sex marriage

National Review Online
- The Missing Governor

Standard-Examiner
- Ogden wants to merge services

Deseret Morning News
- Cannon ahead in new poll
- Merchants at 2 malls are getting nervous
- GOP hoping for quicker vote counts
- Salt Palace expansion stalls
- Editorial: Put base closures on ice
- Op-Ed: Gun foe is confusing the issues

Salt Lake Tribune
- Déja vu in 2nd District GOP primary
- Temple Square Inn on way out; changes at Crossroads
- Huntsman pledges $2M for library
- 'Sprawl-Buster' will speak to Sandy neighbor group
- Provo July 4 parade stakeouts a patriotic pain
- Bishop's wilderness bill might reach House floor this week
- Editorial: Riding in style

Political Calendar

Please submit calendar items to Earlybird@UtahPolicy.com

May 18: Utah Legislature:
• Task Force Studying Water Issues, 8:30am – 10:30am Room 303 State Capitol
• Legislative Management Committee, 2:30pm Room 303 State Capitol
• Hazardous Waste Regulation and Tax Policy Task Force, 3pm Room 403 State Capitol
May 18: Gary Nolan Town Hall Meeting, Libertarian Party presidential candidate—6 pm at Chuck O'Rama 744 East 400 South in Salt Lake City. The public is invited to attend. May 19: Voice for Moderation Monthly Meeting—Guest speaker Nolan Karras, 7:30pm, Foothill/Anderson Library, 1135 S. 2100 E.
May 19: Utah Legislature:
• Workforce Services and Community and Economic Development Interim Committee, 9am Room W25 House Building
• Revenue and Taxation Interim Committee, 9am Room W135 House Building
• Judiciary Interim Committee, 9am Room W130 House Building
• Natural Resources, Agriculture, and Environment Interim Committee, 9am Room 403 State Capitol
• Transportation Interim Committee, 9am Legacy Parkway Site
• Motion Picture Task Force, 1:15pm Room W130 House Building
• Health and Human Services Interim Committee, 2pm Room 403 State Capitol
• Education Interim Committee, 2pm Room 303 State Capitol
• Business and Labor Interim Committee, 2pm Room W135 House Building
• Political Subdivisions Interim Committee, 2pm Room W25 House Building
• Public Utilities and Technology Interim Committee, 2pm Room W20 House Building
May 20: Richard Mack for Governor Meetup—7 pm at Jim's Family Restaurant in Sandy
May 25: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
May 26: WIR Annual Conference—Eccles Conference Center, Ogden.
May 26: Governor's Candidate Forum, Utah Taxpayers Association—12:00 pm, Little America Ballroom, Salt Lake City.
May 30: Iron County Tax Freedom Day Governors Forum—6:00 pm, Sharwan Smith Center Ballroom, SUU, Cedar City.
June 1: Utah Log Cabin Republicans Monthly Meeting—7:30 pm, Room N4010, Salt Lake County Building, 2001 South State Street, Salt Lake.
June 3: Washington County Republican Women meeting and luncheon—11:30 am to 1:00 pm RSVP 435-688-0777
June 3: Progressive Democratic Caucus Meeting—6:30 pm to 8:00 pm, 455 South 300 East, Suite 102, Salt Lake City. Contact: Craig Axford (801) 918-6017.
June 4: Debate between John Huntsman Jr. and Nolan Karras, Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce and Daily Herald, First Friday Forum lunch—noon at the Provo Marriott Hotel . Lunch reservations, 379-2555; debate questions, Michael Mower 852-6103 .
June 10, 11: Government Affairs Advisory Committee of the Salt Lake Chamber—11am Eccles Board Room, Salt Lake Chamber.
June 12: Davis County Democrats No-Host Breakfast—8:30 am to 10:00 am, Joanie's Restaurant, 286 North 400 West, Kaysville. Contact: Richard Watson (801) 292-6772.
June 22: Utah Primary Election—7:00 am to 8:00 pm.
June 22: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
June 24: Legislative Golf Tournament—Thanksgiving Point. 533-9777.
June 26: Republican Central Committee Meeting.
June 27: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
July 19-23: National Conference of State Legislatures— Salt Lake City

See the entire calendar.