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Wednesday's Buzz

Gov. Olene Walker is going to put forth her tax reform proposals, even though she won't be around to promote them in the 2005 Legislature. The Legislature may ignore whatever she suggests, but the proposals will be on the table and might help set the agenda in the last three months of the gubernatorial election.

Walker enjoys a certain freedom that politicians seeking election don't have. Without having to worry about politics, she is free to make her tax proposals based on what she really thinks is right for the state, rather than what is politically expedient. And with her high approval rating and access to the news media, her proposals will receive a lot of attention and probably some support by editorial writers. Legislative and gubernatorial candidates, in particular, will be asked how they stand on Walker's proposals.

In an earlier press release, Walker said Utah's current tax system is out-of-date and her aim is “total tax reform. No aspect of the tax system is beyond consideration.” She set a deadline of early August to unveil her tax plan. Her team of advisors, including Gary Cornia, Pam Hendrickson, Bruce Johnson, Leo Memmott, Ray Nelson, Val Oveson , Keith Prescott and Lynne Ward , will look at overall tax structure and balance, tax exemptions and how critical education needs can be funded while maintaining a business-friendly economic environment. They have been charged with creating a tax system for the 21st Century.

That's a tall order, obviously. The proposal may fall far short of that and simply tinker a bit with the existing structure. Or, it could suggest dramatic changes such as eliminating a lot of “holy cow” exemptions or imposing a tax on services.

Walker's initiative comes at a time of intense interest in taxes on a number of fronts. Strong pressure exists to boost taxes for education. Local government leaders are lobbying hard for more flexibility in tax policy at the local level. And pressure is also building for transportation tax increases, both the gas tax and transit sales tax.

Much of this will come to a head in the next legislative session, and Walker's proposals will certainly be an interesting part of the debate.

—LaVarr Webb

Winning the Political Game
The Wild Politics of Salt Lake County

Sponsored by Xi Corporation
Utah 's best source for political data solutions

Salt Lake County is obviously Utah's most important county politically, but it is also wild and unpredictable. A quick review of past county election results shows a confusing hodgepodge of election outcomes that makes very little sense without sophisticated and detailed analysis.

Smart candidates will perform that sophisticated and detailed analysis or be in danger of losing. Consider some facts:

• The county should vote pretty predictably Republican. After all, 82,000 (19%) of the 421,000 registered voters are registered Republicans, compared to only 37,000 (9%) who are registered Democrats. And of the 294,000 unaffiliated registered voters, polls show far more of them consider themselves Republicans than Democrats.

• But those numbers favorable to Republicans don't always hold up in actual elections. Combining several dozen races at all levels on the ballot, the county performs only 51 percent Republican to 47 percent Democratic. The truth is, a lot of Salt Lake County Republicans are perfectly happy to vote for Democrats. And they will frequently vote for a Republican in one race and a Democrat in another.

• So Salt Lake County is really a swing county, and election results bear that out. In 2002, Democrat Dave Thomas beat Republican Rob Bishop 9,100 votes to 5,300 votes in the 64 First Congressional District voting precincts in the county, despite losing by a wide margin in the rest of the district. Jim Matheson clobbered John Swallow 74,400 votes to 49,300 votes in the Second District part of the county. Republican Chris Cannon beat a weak opponent, Nancy Jane Woodside, 43,400 votes to 25,500 votes in the Third District's 250 precincts in the county.

• The Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County mayors and council members are all over the map politically, with a liberal city mayor and a conservative county mayor, but with a lot of diversity among council members who don't necessarily reflect those ideologies.

• The legislative makeup of the county is also an interesting mix, with six Republicans and six Democrats in the Senate, and 17 Republicans and 14 Democrats in the House.

• Democrats Dave Yocom, Sherrie Swensen and Randy Horiuchi won countywide in 2002, but so did Republicans Lee Gardner, Craig Sorensen, Gary Ott, Aaron Kennard, Vaughn Butler and Larry Richardson.

• In 2000, George Bush won the county with 155,000 votes to Al Gore's 98,000, but Republican incumbent Gov. Mike Leavitt, with 129,000 votes, lost in the county to Democrat Bill Orton with 143,000 votes. And Orrin Hatch beat Scott Howell 152,000 votes to 118,000. Nancy Workman beat Karen Crompton that year, but a number of Democrats won council races.

So no candidate from either party can take Salt Lake County for granted. In figuring out how to gain a winning margin in Salt Lake County, candidates would be wise to analyze race outcomes in overlapping political jurisdictions, right down to the voting precinct level. We'll outline how to do that in future Earlybird editions.

—LaVarr Webb

The Earlybird is a service of Utah Policy.com

Publisher: LaVarr Webb
Editor: Bart Barker
News: Golden Webb
Subscriptions: Paul Hollingshead

Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Today's Headlines

San Francisco Chronicle
- Open the gate to the American Dream

Standard-Examiner
- Centerville group looks to ax Wal-Mart
- Weber to try leasing vehicles

Deseret Morning News
- Event's timing a Huntsman perk
- Panel resists hotter waste
- Senate says no to delay on bases
- County mulls tax hike to un-gridlock roads
- Apt gift? Utahns stumped
- Bishop way ahead in 1st District race
- Library tax hike goes unopposed
- Tuition-credit study closer
- Office of Education faces legislative audit
- Hatch flays animal-rights 'terrorists'
- Billboard cap wins approval
- Auditors review courts office
- Utah jobless rate sinks
- Lee Davidson: Political donors know that money talks

Salt Lake Tribune
- Politics fuel S.L. Co. vehicle flap
- Karras has close ties to Envirocare
- Audit rips waste oversight
- Audit: DEQ administration, collections fall short
- N-weapon funding battle divides Utah delegation
- Rolly and Wells: Angry Democrat hasn't forgotten Rocky's backing of Mitt
- Audit rebuffs whistle-blowers
- County tweaks rules covering billboards
- AG's brief assails campus gun ban
- Two school districts plan to increase property taxes
- Job growth jumps in Utah
- Editorial: A math problem

Political Calendar

Please submit calendar items to Earlybird@UtahPolicy.com

May 19: Voice for Moderation Monthly Meeting—Guest speaker Nolan Karras, 7:30pm, Foothill/Anderson Library, 1135 S. 2100 E.
May 19: Utah Legislature:
• Workforce Services and Community and Economic Development Interim Committee, 9am Room W25 House Building
• Revenue and Taxation Interim Committee, 9am Room W135 House Building
• Judiciary Interim Committee, 9am Room W130 House Building
• Natural Resources, Agriculture, and Environment Interim Committee, 9am Room 403 State Capitol
• Transportation Interim Committee, 9am Legacy Parkway Site
• Motion Picture Task Force, 1:15pm Room W130 House Building
• Health and Human Services Interim Committee, 2pm Room 403 State Capitol
• Education Interim Committee, 2pm Room 303 State Capitol
• Business and Labor Interim Committee, 2pm Room W135 House Building
• Political Subdivisions Interim Committee, 2pm Room W25 House Building
• Public Utilities and Technology Interim Committee, 2pm Room W20 House Building
May 20: Richard Mack for Governor Meetup—7 pm at Jim's Family Restaurant in Sandy
May 22: Annual Teen Age Republican's scholarship fundraiser—4:30-6:30 pm at Layton's Chapel Park, 125 S. Chapel. Guest speaker Mark Shurtleff. RSVP to Candice Dallin at 774-9982.
May 25: 3rd Congressional District GOP Candidates Debate, Chris Cannon vs Matt Throckmorton, sponsored by Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce, Daily Herald and Provo City— 7pm Provo City Council Chambers, 351 West Center Street, Provo. Contact Michael Mower, (801) 852-6103.
May 25: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
May 26: WIR Annual Conference—Eccles Conference Center, Ogden.
May 26: Governor's Candidate Forum, Utah Taxpayers Association—12:00 pm, Little America Ballroom, Salt Lake City.
May 30: Iron County Tax Freedom Day Governors Forum—6:00 pm, Sharwan Smith Center Ballroom, SUU, Cedar City.
June 1: Utah Log Cabin Republicans Monthly Meeting—7:30 pm, Room N4010, Salt Lake County Building, 2001 South State Street, Salt Lake.
June 3: Washington County Republican Women meeting and luncheon—11:30 am to 1:00 pm RSVP 435-688-0777
June 3: Progressive Democratic Caucus Meeting—6:30 pm to 8:00 pm, 455 South 300 East, Suite 102, Salt Lake City. Contact: Craig Axford (801) 918-6017.
June 4: Debate between John Huntsman Jr. and Nolan Karras, Provo/Orem Chamber of Commerce and Daily Herald, First Friday Forum lunch—noon at the Provo Marriott Hotel . Lunch reservations, 379-2555; debate questions, Michael Mower 852-6103.
June 6: Gubernatorial Debate: On the Record with Chris Vanocur—KTVX Channel 4, 9:30 am, Contact Chris Vanocur, (801) 975-4444.
June 10, 11: Government Affairs Advisory Committee of the Salt Lake Chamber—11am, Eccles Board Room, Salt Lake Chamber.
June 12: Davis County Democrats No-Host Breakfast—8:30 am to 10:00 am, Joanie's Restaurant, 286 North 400 West, Kaysville. Contact: Richard Watson (801) 292-6772.
June 13: Gubernatorial Debate: Take Two with Rod Decker—Live on KUTV Channel 2 at 5:30 pm, Contact Rod Decker, (801) 973-3000.
June 14: Lt. Governor Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George—Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452
June 15: Gubernatorial Debate: KCSG and Bonneville Radio in St. George—Live at 7:00 pm, Contact: Dan Matheson, (435) 467-7452.
June 21: Gubernatorial Debate: KUED Channel 7—Live at 9:00 pm.
June 22: Utah Primary Election—7:00 am to 8:00 pm.
June 22: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
June 24: Legislative Golf Tournament—Thanksgiving Point. 533-9777.
June 26: Republican Central Committee Meeting.
June 27: Green Party of Utah Roots Local Monthly Meeting—12:00 pm, Sprague Library, 1100 East, just past 2100 South, Salt Lake City. Contact: 486-2558.
July 19-23: National Conference of State Legislatures— Salt Lake City

See the entire calendar.