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Matheson Ad Targets Huntsman
The gubernatorial campaign has gotten a little more dicey (see
Morning
News story) with a new Scott Matheson TV ad criticizing
Jon Huntsman for his support of tuition tax credits and his
suggestion that it might be time to build a new prison outside the
Salt Lake Valley. People have been telling Matheson that if he doesn’t
draw a contrast between himself and Huntsman he loses. It may be
too little, too late, but Matheson apparently has listened.
Those are not exactly hard-hitting issues and the ads aren’t terribly
negative. Huntsman handles both of those issues with aplomb in the
debates. He hasn’t been on the defensive. Best response might be
to just say, “Is that all you got?”
Big Issue Ahead: Transportation Funding
Transportation funding is going to be an enormous issue over the
next few years, starting with the upcoming legislative session.
(See today’s Tribune
story.) A very significant coalition has come together to back
a major transportation initiative, including funding for both highways
and mass transit. Supporters include the Wasatch Front Regional
Council, the Mountainlands Association of Governments, the city
and county organizations, the Salt Lake Chamber, and the transportation
agencies.
For the initiative to be successful, the business community and average citizens are going to have to get involved. I don’t believe legislators will adequately fund the initiative unless they hear loud and clear from their constituents that they want it. Citizens need to say they’re tired of crowded highways and they want light rail, commuter rail, and significant freeway expansion, particularly in Utah County.
In a speech Monday to the annual UDOT Engineers Conference, UDOT Director
John Njord said highway engineers are doing a lot more with
less money, but are falling behind both in maintenance and in needed
expansion. No matter how it’s measured, current transportation funding
is not keeping up with demand.
Best Political Blogs
The Washington Post has announced its selections for the
best political web logs in several categories, based on nominations
and votes by readers. Check out the winners.
It’s a fun list. Note that a lot of the winners are conservative
blogs.
Our Utah
Policy Blog hasn’t exactly been a hotbed of activity, but we’ll
get it going better after things settle down post-election. We have
plenty of terrific policymakers who have volunteered to blog, but
not many of them have actually done it. Most haven’t quite gotten
the hang of this blogging thing. Too shy to make their opinions
known. Blogs don’t have to be great masterpieces of writing, just
little insights, observations, comments on current events, reports
of meetings, etc. It’s actually quite easy. You just have to do
it.
Presidential Race:
Way Too Close to Call
Charlie Cook’s Tuesday National Journal column is
so good and insightful that I’m going to reprint all of it here.
It covers the presidential contest, U.S. Senate and U.S. House.
Just stop reading when you’re bored. To subscribe to the column,
go
here.
By Charlie Cook
Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2004
I have no idea who is going to win this election. I really don't.
National polls from reputable polling organizations range from
President Bush ahead by seven points (Fox News/Opinion Dynamics)
to Sen. John Kerry ahead by three points (Associated Press/Ipsos).
The www.realclearpolitics.com
seven-day moving average shows Bush with a lead of 3.1 percentage
points -- 48.9 percent to Kerry's 45.8 percent. If you assume that
independent candidate Ralph Nader and other minor candidates get
about two percent of the vote, Bush needs to be around 49 percent
to win. But if you assume that the president, as usually is the
case with well-known, well-defined incumbents, get very few undecided
votes, then one can conclude he is teetering right on the edge of
the knife blade, and could fall one way and win, just barely, or
the other way and lose, just barely. If you choose to put more weight
on job approval ratings as a predictor of a president's vote, that's
better for Bush: The RCP average is 50 percent approve, 46.6 percent
disapprove.
But that assumes that these national polls are right, and that the Electoral College is going to follow the popular vote. We know from 2000, as Emory University's Alan Abramowitz points out, that of the 43 national polls released during the last week before the election, 39 had Bush ahead, two were tied and only two had Vice President Al Gore in the lead, with the average of all 43 polls showing Bush leading by 3.5 percentage points. Gore carried the popular vote by a half of one percentage point, so the national polls were off by four points.
Now some of this, no doubt, was due to a depression of Republican turnout after the story broke of Bush's arrest for driving under the influence of alcohol a quarter-century earlier. And Democrats were widely thought of as having enjoyed a strong get-out-the-vote organizational advantage that year, which wouldn't necessarily show up in the polls. But the polls were still off -- this stuff isn't that exact of a science.
In terms of the Electoral College, I'm carrying nine states with 109 electoral votes in the toss up category: Florida (27), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10). While all nine of these states are very close, one might put a feather on Bush's side of the scale in Iowa and Wisconsin, and while Kerry may have the same sliver of an edge in Pennsylvania. But Florida, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Ohio look absolutely even.
Michigan has gotten much closer, but Kerry seems ahead, as he is in Maine and Oregon. Maine, however, splits its electoral votes, and President Bush has a chance of picking off the 2nd congressional district. Colorado, which does not look likely to pass the constitutional amendment to create proportional allocation of its electoral vote, is leaning toward Bush, along with North Carolina, which has gotten closer, and West Virginia. All in all, Bush leads in 26 states with 222 electoral votes, 48 shy of what's needed to win. Kerry is ahead in 16 states with 207 votes, 63 short of the 270 needed to prevail.
Having gone through all of that, I still think it is a fool's errand to try to out-smart the Electoral College. If the margin on Election Day is more than one percentage point, then the electoral vote will follow the popular vote. But if the margin is less than a point, then it means that there are a bunch of states, roughly a half-dozen, that will be basically tied, and no poll, particularly given the lousy quality of most state-level, news media-sponsored polls, can tell you who will win those.
Five states were decided in 2000 by a half-percentage point or less. No poll can tell you who will win those. No poll could tell you who was going to win Florida, which Bush won by 537 votes, or New Mexico, which Gore carried by 366 votes. Anybody lucky enough to pick the precise outcome of the last half-dozen or so states in this election shouldn't be wasting their time on politics -- they should be playing the Powerball lottery.
But as a political handicapper, it is the uncertainties that haunt me in this race. There are massive, unprecedented numbers of new people registering to vote -- we don't really know who these people are, if they will vote and if so, for whom. We see extraordinary levels of interest being shown on the part of the sporadic, infrequent voters -- the folks that haven't shown up for a presidential election since 1992, for example -- so who are they and how will they vote? There are truly uniquely high levels of interest among young voters, a term that is normally an oxymoron, with 74 percent of college students nationwide telling pollsters for Harvard's Institute of Politics that they have discussed the election in the preceding 24 hours. The biggest controversy on campus when I was in school was when the pub was raising the price of beer from 25 cents to 35 cents per glass.
Finally, there is the issue of cell phones, with estimates ranging from as low as five or six percent to as high as eight or nine percent of all individual telephone subscribers having only cell phones and no land lines. It is against the law for a pollster to call a cell phone. While that means a large number of young people aren't being included in these poll samples, it is also true that pre-paid cell phones are rapidly becoming the primary way in which low-income people get telephone service, as many cannot qualify for the credit check required to get a land line.
Between the inadequacies of even the best survey research in really close races and these other factors, people can hope who will win this presidential race, but nobody really knows the outcome.
The Senate
In the fight for the Senate, the odds still favor Republicans retaining their majority, but Democrats have expanded the playing field by a seat, which may improve their chances. Democrats are certain to lose their open seat in Georgia, while their four other open seats and the race in South Dakota are all too close to call.
Every time it seems that Republican Rep. Jim DeMint appears on the verge of putting away the open seat in South Carolina, he sticks his foot, ankle and much of his leg down his throat, tightening the margin and forcing the National Republican Senatorial Committee to go back on the air to help drag him across the finish line. Given the state's strong Republican tilt, DeMint has the slimmest of advantages over Democrat Inez Tenenbaum, but this race should have been over weeks ago.
In North Carolina, GOP Rep. Richard Burr appears to be ever-so-slightly ahead of investment banker and former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, thanks to the small Republican advantage in the state. Still, there is little question that Bowles has been the better candidate and run the better campaign. Republican worries over Burr's micromanagement of his campaign have made for a more difficult race than it should have been, but the recently passed tobacco buy-out legislation has given him a boost. Although this race isn't over, put a thumb on the scale for Burr.
There is no question that Republican Rep. David Vitter of Louisiana is exceeding all expectations, particularly mine, and is lapping both of his principal Democratic rivals, Rep. Chris John and state Treasurer John Kennedy, in the state's unique open primary. By most conservative estimates, Vitter is averaging in the mid-40s, while John and Kennedy are each around 20 percent. Democrats went to DEFCON 1 a couple of weeks ago when polls warned that Vitter was in range of reaching the required 50 percent necessary on Nov. 2 to avoid a Dec. 4 runoff. National Democrats ramped up their attacks on Vitter weeks earlier than they had expected.
Kennedy has been a better candidate than most expected (myself included), while Chris John has been something of an under-performer. Having said that, it is interesting to note that the very same polls showing Vitter with more initial support than Chris John and John Kennedy combined also indicate that Vitter picks up very little additional support in runoff match-ups. Both Democrats pick up a clear majority of the other's support in a runoff contest. In short, it is not accidental that no Republican has ever been elected to the Senate in Louisiana, that 11 of the 12 statewide officials are Democrats and that Republicans have won the governorship only under unusual circumstances.
Still, it would be a mistake to underestimate Vitter in this race, given his already impressive performance. A runoff will be very close.
The Florida contest between Democrat Betty Castor, a former state education commissioner and former president of the University of South Florida, and Republican Mel Martinez, President Bush's former Housing secretary, is basically tied. Many believe the outcome will be as close as the presidential contest and will be dictated by which side gets their voters to the polls.
Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota, meanwhile, is in the fight of his political life against 2002 GOP Senate nominee and former Rep. John Thune. Recent polls are split on who is ahead, but this is another race that will be won on the ground.
In terms of Democratic shots at picking up Republican seats, appointed incumbent Lisa Murkowski in Alaska looks to be in pretty tough shape. It's not over and it is certainly better to be a Republican than a Democrat in that state, but very few polls have ever shown her ahead of Democratic former Gov. Tony Knowles. While it remains a very close race, it looks tough for her.
The race in Colorado between Democratic state Attorney General Ken Salazar and Republican Pete Coors is close, but it appears that Salazar has a tiny edge going into the final week. Like North Carolina, the normal advantage afforded Republican candidates seems diminished this year, and Coors is just now getting the hang of being a candidate. It's not over, but put a thumb on the scale for Democrats.
Expectations that Republican former Rep. Tom Coburn would self-destruct in the open-seat contest in Oklahoma have not come to pass. While Coburn has made some unusual and unconstructive statements, the NRSC helped him retool his campaign and the candidate has largely behaved himself, giving him a slim advantage over Democratic Rep. Brad Carson. This race isn't over, but the political demographics tilt slightly in Republicans' favor.
Finally, there is Kentucky, the newest addition to the list of toss up races. Democratic physician and state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo has pulled within single digits of Republican incumbent Jim Bunning. Democrats' enemy is time and whether the race tightened too late to get Mongiardo over the top. Give the edge to Bunning, but this race is definitely not a done deal.
For Democrats to capture a majority in the Senate, they have to win six out of these last nine really close contests and win the presidential race (with the vice president breaking the tie), or seven out of nine if President Bush is re-elected. This is a tall order, but the addition of Kentucky to the list improves their odds a bit.
The House
Thanks to a combination of Texas redistricting, a small number of open seats to defend, and just a handful of truly vulnerable incumbents, House Republicans are poised to hold their majority for the fifth election in a row. The only question now is just what the margin will look like on Nov. 3.
Still, House Democrats do have some significant opportunities. First, outside of Texas, where Democrats could lose as many as six seats (though insiders see Democratic Rep. Chet Edwards holding on to his 17th District, giving Republicans a total of five seats), Democratic incumbents look relatively comfortable. The one exception is Rep. Baron Hill in southern Indiana, whom insiders on both sides are eyeing as a potential upset. Republicans are hitting Hill on his votes on social issues like abortion and gay marriage, arguing that he is "out of the mainstream" and "too liberal for Indiana," a message that may resonate in this culturally conservative district. Still, Hill has survived tough campaigns before and has put down some roots in this district.
Democrats also have fewer open seat races in jeopardy than do Republicans. Today, Democrats have three open seats in danger: Kentucky-04 (Ken Lucas), Lousiana-07 (Chris John) and Missouri-05 (Karen McCarthy), which is a new addition. By the numbers, Missouri-05 should not even be in play -- after all, McCarthy never took less than 57 percent of the vote, and Gore got 60 percent vote here in 2000. But GOP nominee Jeanne Patterson has already poured close to $3 million of her own money into the race, pummeling former Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver on ethical issues. A recent Kansas City Star poll put Cleaver at 46 percent and Patterson at 41 percent.
Republicans, on the other hand, have four open seats in the toss-up category: Colorado-03 (Scott McInnis), Louisiana-03 (Billy Tauzin), New York-27 (Jack Quinn) and Washington-08 (Jennifer Dunn). But also on the watch list are Pennsylvania-08 (Jim Greenwood) and Virginia-02 (Ed Schrock).
Republican incumbents in the most trouble: Rob Simmons and Chris Shays in Connecticut, where the partisan, polarized political environment may take its toll on these "red" incumbents sitting in a "blue" state. New Mexico Rep. Heather Wilson also has a very tight rematch race on her hands in the Albuquerque-based 1st district. The intense focus on New Mexico as a battleground state in the presidential election could have a significant impact on the race. Georgia Republican Max Burns, the freshman with the biggest target on his head after his improbable win in this heavily Democratic seat in 2002, is also considered vulnerable. Still, in recent days, insiders on both sides seem to be moving away from earlier assumptions that this race was in the bag for Democrat John Barrow. Also in trouble is Phil Crane in Illinois' 8th district, who has been pushed back on his heels not just by his Democratic opponent Melissa Bean, but also by an Illinois press corps that has kept a laser-like focus on what would normally be a backburner congressional contest.
Where the two parties disagree is in Minnesota-06, where GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy is either tied with Democrat Patty Wetterling or has a double-digit lead, and North Carolina-11, where GOP Rep. Charlie Taylor is either in a statistical dead heat with Democratic Buncombe County Commissioner Patsy Keever or enjoys a comfortable lead.
With so much uncertainty about what turn-out will look like on Nov. 2, districts and incumbents that look comfortable on paper today may find themselves in much tighter predicaments. Still, the two party committees seem focused on ensuring that none of their incumbents fall through the cracks. Today, it looks like the range for House control falls somewhere between Democrats picking up three to five seats to Republicans picking up one or two seats.
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