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It’s a big day in the nation’s capital. Coverage of the presidential
inaugural activities in Washington, D.C., will be broadcast most
of the day on radio and cable news channels.
JibJab Strikes Again
Speaking of President Bush’s second term. The funny people at JibJab
have produced another cartoon on that topic. Go to www.jibjab.com
and click on the Second Term video. It takes a few minutes to load.
What do Real Liberals Think of Huntsman?
For a liberal response to Gov. Jon Huntsman’s state-of-the-state
speech, go to the Utah Democratic Progressive Caucus’s Web site
www.udpc.org.
The Progressive Caucus, co-chaired by Craig Axford and Laura
Bonham, is one of the state’s most liberal organizations. The
group also has a fairly lively Web
log that pushes the Democratic Party to become more liberal.
Thanks to Bill S. Lee for sending along the information about
UDPC.
Oldies But Goodies
“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short
phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And
if it stops moving, subsidize it.”
--Ronald Reagan
“A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man,
which debt he proposes to pay off with your money.”
--G. Gordon Liddy
“No man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature
is in session.”
--Mark Twain
White House 2008: Why Not Newt?
By Charlie Cook
Tuesday, Jan. 18, 2005
(Sign
up for the Cook column)
It's impossible to tell whether the story last week that former
House Speaker Newt Gingrich was contemplating a bid for the
2008 Republican presidential nomination was a real trial balloon
or just some savvy publicist's great idea for drawing attention
to Gingrich's new book. But it might not be quite as nutty as some,
particularly Democrats, liberals and most journalists, think that
the architect of the 1994 "Contract with America" electoral revolution
might run and be a real player in the race.
A glance at the early polls testing preliminary support (or at
least name recognition) for those mentioned as possible candidates
reveals that the former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani
and Sen. John McCain of Arizona start out as the co-front-runners.
A December 17-19 Associated Press/Ipsos survey of 381 Republicans
and independents who say they vote in GOP primaries showed Giuliani
with 29 percent to McCain's 25 percent, while Senate Majority Leader
Bill Frist and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush were tied for
third with 7 percent each. Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum
and New York Gov. George Pataki tied with 3 percent each,
with Sen. George Allen of Virginia next with 2 percent. Rounding
out the field were Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Colorado
Gov. Bill Owens and Sen. Chuck Hagel; each had 1 percent.
Of course, not all of these candidates are running, while others
-- Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, for instance -- have been
frequenting Iowa of late. This poll is a measurement of name recognition
more than anything else. But let's assume for the moment that Giuliani
and McCain top the popularity contest.
It is not yet known whether the aversion that GOP establishments
have toward the maverick McCain has dissipated any. The closer one
gets to the middle of the ideological spectrum, the more independent
a voter is, the more likely he or she thinks McCain is the cat's
meow -- a great attribute in a general election, but not so great
in winning a nomination. Clearly McCain's campaigning on behalf
of President Bush was designed to repair some of that damage. Giuliani,
meanwhile, was one of the most popular campaign surrogates last
year. Indeed, he was the "O Positive" surrogate, the universal donor
-- you could send him anywhere for any candidate and he would be
a big hit, even in the deep South. There is no doubt that Giuliani
has an enormous reservoir of good will, and not just because of
his performance in the aftermath of the Sept. 11 tragedy and leadership
he provided. The guy was also a very effective mayor, turning around
a city that had been dysfunctional for years, and making the place
work reasonably well.
But while all of that may sound like very reasonable qualifications
for someone to run for president, it is also true that Giuliani
stands a world apart from the base of his party on many of the GOP's
litmus-test issues. He is pro-choice on abortion, pro-gun control
and supportive of gay rights. While these attributes would make
Giuliani a perfect candidate for siphoning support away from all
but the strongest Democratic nominee, and peel off countless independent
and moderate voters in the middle of the spectrum, his stands on
these social and cultural issues are the antithesis of where the
party base is.
This is certainly not to suggest that there are no liberal or moderate
Republican voters out there, people who are pro-choice or support
gun control or gay rights, just as there are conservative and moderate
Democrats who are pro-life, against gun control or gay marriage.
But both groups are enormously outnumbered, particularly in their
respective party's presidential nomination process.
Only a complete fool would make a prediction about a presidential
election nearly four years out, but my hunch is that cows will fly
before someone with Giuliani's ideological profile will win a GOP
nomination this decade and probably next. At the same time, it is
not at all clear to me that McCain will run, or that his relationship
with the conservatives who dominate the process has improved enough
for him to win a nomination.
And if one discounts the likelihood of either Giuliani or McCain
winning the GOP nomination, the fight is as wide open as the Republican
Party has seen since at least 1980 and probably much longer than
that. This normally hierarchical party always has an heir apparent,
but in 2008 it doesn't.
So if the fight for the GOP nomination is wide open, why doesn't
Gingrich have a shot? Granted, last time I saw any favorable/unfavorable
numbers on the former speaker among the electorate at large, they
were hideous, but I suspect he remains a pretty popular figure among
the GOP rank and file. He would almost certainly be able to raise
significant amounts of money, and draw crowds of conservatives nearly
anywhere he goes.
Gingrich is far from a front-runner -- after all, the contest is
wide open, right? But the former speaker is a politician who would
occupy a great deal of space in the race for a good long while,
and make it more difficult for many of the lesser-known candidates,
particularly those with somewhat limited political skills, to get
any traction. That book tour might be worth watching.
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