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Municipal Elections Ahead
2005 is an off-election year, but that doesn’t mean politics will be entirely absent. Hundreds of municipal officials will be up for election this year, including almost all mayors (except some of the biggest cities like Salt Lake City, Ogden and West Valley). Among the larger cities, Provo Mayor Lewis Billings and Sandy Mayor Tom Dolan are up this year, along with city council members in every municipality.
Nationally, big elections are already underway for the mayorships of New York City (Michael Bloomberg) and Los Angeles (James Hahn) in addition to gubernatorial contests in New Jersey and Virginia.
In Utah, the 2005 municipal election filing period runs from July 15 through August 16. Primary election is Oct. 4 and the municipal election Nov. 8.
While it is far too early for incumbents and prospective candidates to be doing any public campaigning at this time, it’s never too early to be thinking and planning. Anyone serious about an election should be thinking through how their campaigns will be organized and operated. It is certainly not too early to be developing e-mail lists and looking at past voting results and patterns. It is also time to be putting together lists of political activists and active voters and thinking about messaging and campaign positions.
Blog Watch
Legislative leaders and the Gov. Jon Huntsman are getting along just fine, according to House Majority Leader Jeff Alexander, writing Tuesday in the Utah House Majority Blog. The executive and legislative branch leaders are meeting, discussing issues, and working through disagreements, Alexander writes, noting that it’s perfectly normal for the governor and Legislature to disagree on a few things. . . . Rep. Steve Urquhart provides a few hints on what legislative leaders might be thinking about doing with increased revenue. . . . Since receiving a lot of publicity, the Legacy Hotsheet Blog has attracted a lot of traffic and comments, both pro and con, including some highly intelligent statements like: “Davis County is a cultural slag heap.” Ouch. That hurts.
Rally for Choice
Parents for Choice in Education is sponsoring a school choice rally on Capitol Hill on Monday, Feb. 21, 3-5 p.m. Organizers expect HB39, the tuition tax credit bill, will be on its way to the House floor for a vote. Hot chocolate and doughnuts for everyone. Call 532-4515 or 755-7292 with any questions.
National Politics Watch
Bush Approval Just Over 50%
Just how popular is President Bush right now? In his weekly e-mail National Journal column, Charlie Cook discussed a couple of widely disparate polls, one showing Bush with a 57 percent approval rating, another taken at about the same time showing only 45 percent approval, and a third exactly in between at 51 percent.
What caused the difference? It’s the way pollsters “weight” their surveys if their demographics, particularly party affiliation numbers, aren’t what they want.
Cook said a more accurate survey method would be “to utilize a dynamic party weighting method. This involves weighting the party identification in a national poll to a moving average of the last three months' numbers.” Using a rolling average, Bush’s approval rating would be 51 percent with 46 percent disapproval.
Says Cook: “This question of Bush's approval rating is hardly an academic exercise or a study in nit-picking. Republicans in Congress are going to be watching the president's popularity very carefully as they decide whether and to what extent to back him up on politically dangerous federal budget cuts, changes in Social Security and, down the road, Medicare and tax battles.
“Conversely, moderate to conservative Democrats will be less likely to oppose a president with big numbers -- but would find it much easier to say no to one whose approval ratings are at 50 percent, give or take a point or two. A president with a 57 percent approval rating at this point in his second term is sitting in pretty tall cotton, as they used to say back home, while one with a 45 percent is in pretty deep trouble.”
Nevada Republicans Helped Reid?
"[I]t is Republicans who need to look in the mirror as to why Senator [Harry] Reid is in office in the first place. Calnews.com goes so far as to claim 'Reid is a product of the Nevada Republican Party.' It points out that moderate Republicans in Nevada gave Mr. Reid a pass when he ran for re-election last year. Sig Rogich, a Republican consultant in Nevada who served as a White House adviser to the first President Bush, was one of several GOPers who made sure the party went easy on his Democratic friend. Other Republican consultants, including many close to Republican Governor Kenny Guinn, worked overtime to keep the Democrat in office. The result was that Republican candidate after Republican candidate backed away from a potential race even though Mr. Reid had squeaked to re-election in 1998 by only 428 votes. Mr. Reid ended up cruising to victory last fall with over 60% of the vote, the first time in four Senate elections that he topped 51%. If Republicans find Reid the chief obstructionist, they can thank themselves for being his chief enabler."
-- John Fund, Wall Street Journal (Source: The Federalist Patriot)
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