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New Public Policy Newsletter
The Center for Public Policy and Administration at the University of Utah has instituted an e-mail newsletter on public policy and public administration issues. The first edition (see here includes a 2005 legislative session summary and analysis of a Dan Jones & Associates poll on policy issues and trust in government. The newsletter is free and anyone can sign up to receive it.
News Media Watch
Newspaper Gossipers are Struggling
Fun story in the New York Times about how newspaper gossip columnists are a dying breed in the era of blogs. Seems the newspaper columnists are having a hard time competing on the gossip beat. “The real-time pace of Internet gossip has made it difficult for newspaper gossip columnists to stay ahead of the curve. Mr. (Richard) Leiby (gossip columnist for the Washington Post) said that many people in the Post newsroom monitored Wonkette.com, a Washington blog, all day long. ‘She often has the lead on me because she's in real time,’ he said.”
Open Space Money Available
Local governments and other entities may now apply for funds from the LeRay McAllister Critical Land Conservation Fund. Pre-applications are due May 11. The Utah Quality Growth Commission has announced the opening of a new application cycle for grants and loans to preserve or restore critical open or agricultural land in Utah. It is a competitive program with limited funds. For more information, go to the Commission Web site or contact John Bennett in the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, 801.538.1027, jbennett@utah.gov.
In the last legislative session, thanks to the efforts of The Nature Conservancy, members of the Quality Growth Commission, and others, some $3 million was secured for the LeRay McAllister Fund. While the appropriation was not as much as backers had hoped for, it was the largest appropriation ever for the fund. The money will be matched and leveraged with federal, local and private loans and grants for trails, parks, watershed, wildlife habitat, farmland protection and other projects to preserve and restore open space in critical areas.
Funding decisions are made by commission members, comprised of local government leaders, representatives of key state agencies, and citizen representatives of key groups.
National Politics
435 Ways To Parse The Presidential Election Results
By Charlie Cook
Tuesday, March 29, 2005 (Sign up here).
For true political junkies, nothing is more exciting than getting a whole new bunch of voting data to pore over and analyze. This week, Polidata's Clark Bensen's preliminary compilation of presidential results by each of the 435 congressional districts is political nirvana for congressional-race watchers. The new results show President Bush won the popular vote in 255 congressional districts, a 75-seat edge over Sen. John Kerry's 180 congressional districts.
This data also confirm long-standing conventional wisdom that there are fewer and fewer competitive seats left in Congress. While this is bad news for Democrats in that it means the political playing field is structurally difficult to expand, it also means that Republicans are unlikely to build a significant majority.
The unprecedented partisan loyalty displayed by voters in picking a president was also reflected at the congressional level. In only 59 districts (or 13 percent of House seats) did voters split their tickets between the presidential candidate of one party and the congressional candidate of the other.
For Democrats, there is even more bad news in these numbers. Forty-one (almost 70 percent) of these 59 "ticket-splitting" districts were won by President Bush and are currently held by Democrats; Kerry won just 18 districts held by a Republican incumbent. Not surprisingly, half (21) of the Bush districts held by Democratic House incumbents are in the South, while a little more than half (10) of the Kerry districts held by Republican House incumbents are located in the Northeast.
The 10 Democrats sitting in the most Republican districts by Bush percentage are: Chet Edwards, Texas-17, Gene Taylor, Miss.-04, Jim Matheson, Utah-02, Ike Skelton, Mo.-04, Earl Pomeroy, N.D.-01, Bud Cramer, Ala.-05, Stephanie Herseth, S.D.-01, Bart Gordon, Tenn.-06, Rick Boucher, Va.-09, and Dan Boren, Okla.-02.
The 10 Republicans sitting in the most Democratic districts are: Jim Leach, Iowa-02, Rob Simmons, Conn.-02, Michael Castle, Del.-01, Mark Kirk, Ill.-10, Jim Nussle, Iowa-01, Curt Weldon, Pa.-07, Chris Shays, Conn.-04, Clay Shaw, Fla.-22, Charlie Bass, N.H.-02, and Jim Gerlach, Pa.-06.
Of course, just because an incumbent sits in the "wrong" district doesn't mean that the member is inherently vulnerable. After all, many of these incumbents are politically popular and have proven time and again that they can defeat well-funded challengers. Of the 18 Republicans sitting in seats won by Kerry, all but three -- Castle, Weldon and Walsh -- have faced competitive races in the last four cycles. More than half of the 41 Democrats have seen significant challenges in the recent past. The notable exceptions are Reps. Skelton and Taylor who sit in districts that gave Bush 64 percent and 68 percent, respectively.
Historically, the number of these "ticket splitting" districts is at an all-time low. In 1992, 103 districts were in this category. In 1996, the number jumped a bit to 110 but decreased in 2000 to 86. In 2002, there were only 63 seats in this category.
This has created a very narrow "trading range" for competitive House seats, with the bulk of districts safely ensconced in the hands of one party or the other. Not only does this change the nature of House elections, but it has also changed the way Congress looks and acts. When Democrats controlled the House from 1961 until 1994, they never dipped below 243 seats and got as high as 295. This allowed the leadership to give members a much freer range than Republicans can afford their members today. Since taking over the House in 1994, Republicans have never had more than 232 seats. This obviously requires a level of discipline that House Democrats never had to deal with during their long reign.
Also interesting to note is the large number of districts where both Bush and Kerry outperformed the 2000 results. This is likely due to the Herculean GOTV effort by both sides in the 2004 election, though Bush outpaced Kerry substantially in this category. Bush won 68 districts by a bigger percentage (four points or more) than he did in 2000, while Kerry outperformed Gore by four points or more in just 24 districts that they both won.
Redistricting can explain some of the change between the 2000 and 2004 results. Still, Kerry underperformed in many states where redistricting did not make appreciable partisan changes to the congressional districts. For example, Kerry underperformed Gore in 15 of the 31 California congressional districts both won, in all but three of Massachusetts' 10 CDs, and 13 of the 20 seats both Gore and Kerry won in New York.
Despite the House's traditional role as the political equivalent of the "canary in a coal mine," the polarized political environment has insulated House incumbents and the body from substantial change. Neither side is likely to build up any sort of sizeable majority, which puts a premium on loyalty and discipline to get anything done.
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