Have a great holiday weekend and head to the high country to beat the heat. Utah Policy Daily will return Tuesday.
Election Insight
SL County is Key to 2nd District
The 2nd Congressional District consists of all or part of 16 counties, but Salt Lake County dominates with 420 voting precincts of 733 total. There are 313 voting precincts outside of Salt Lake County.
Thus, Salt Lake County is the key to winning the 2nd District. If Republicans are ever to defeat Congressman Jim Matheson, they will need to find a candidate who can do reasonably well in Salt Lake County. The Republican doesn’t have to win Salt Lake County, but needs to come within 30,000 or so votes, and then do well in the rest of the district.
Matheson beat John Swallow 182,800 votes to 145,569 (54.55% to 43.44%), a difference of 37,231 votes. But in the 313 precincts outside of Salt Lake County, Swallow beat Matheson 82,026 to 54,939, a difference of 27,087 votes. Swallow did well in Washington and Utah counties, the 2nd and 3rd largest counties in the district after Salt Lake, winning by 12,566 and 7,453 votes respectively.
So Swallow did quite well outside of Salt Lake County, but his problem was he got annihilated in the county, losing 127,861 to 63,543 votes, a whopping difference of 64,318 votes. Swallow did not end up being a very strong candidate, but he showed in two elections that a solid Republican ought to be able to beat Matheson by 30,000 to 35,000 votes fairly easily outside of Salt Lake County.
So if the Republican can come within 25,000 to 30,000 votes of Matheson in Salt Lake County, then Matheson is beatable. The logical question is, then, what Republican can run well in Salt Lake County? The obvious answer is Mark Shurtleff. Shurtleff could do very well outside of Salt Lake County and he is viewed as reasonably moderate by the Salt Lake County east bench Republicans who are easily persuaded to vote Democratic. I don’t even know if Shurtleff lives in the district, but I think he could be a formidable opponent against Matheson. He defeated Greg Skordas 198,000 to 133,000 votes in Salt Lake County (the entire county, not just the 2nd district portion). Matheson is a lot tougher than Skordas, but all Shurtleff has to do is come within 30,000 votes in the county. The governorship isn’t likely to be available until at least 2012, so why wouldn’t Shurtleff want to go for Congress?
Podcast Watch
Most Livable Town, Etc.
Jennifer Napier-Pearce’s Inside Utah podcast, which is now available for downloading and listening, features interviews with Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon on banning cell phones in cars, Attorney General Mark Shurtleff on prosecuting polygamist Warren Jeffs, and Outside Magazine on ranking Salt Lake City the most livable town in America.
People You Ought to Know
Spotlight: Paul T. Mero
Occupation: President, Sutherland Institute
Education: BA in Public Policy from BYU (1984).
Growing up: Early years, the Bay Area; teen years into marriage, Washington D.C.
Family: Wife, Sally (married 29 years); six children, two grandchildren.
Why political involvement: I'm a do-gooder; the "cause" is just a part of my nature.
Hobbies: Reading, writing ... basketball (although I am so fat and out of shape that I can only watch my boys play ... and I do a pretty good job yelling at refs, opposing fans, and anyone pretty much ... very ugly, the least "transcendent" moments in my life these days ... I am constantly apologizing and repenting for my basketball behaviors!).
Motivations/ambitions: Utah is my last stop in politics ... I believe that if good things can't be done in Utah, they can't be done anywhere. I am very passionate about family as the fundamental building block of society ... the stronger our families are, the freer and more prosperous we will all be.
Hottest issue you’re watching: Right now, tax reform ... tax reform centered on the family.
Proudest moment: Professionally, killing a congressional pay raise in 1989 ... Personally, every day, my family.
Most embarrassing moment: Professionally, every time I attempt humor in a public setting ...
Personally, every time I attempt to play basketball.
Favorite book: Book of Mormon (changed my life forever as a young man) ... and The Quest for Community by Robert Nisbet (turned me into a genuine conservative).
Favorite mentor: I have many mentors (most of whom would probably disassociate themselves from the idea!) ... former Congressman Bill Dannemeyer, my former colleague Allan Carlson, a former Sutherland trustee Jim Jenkins, my dear friend Gaylord Swim ... but none more so than a long-time friend of little fame, Cal Olson, who helped teach me how to be a leader in the home, how to maintain spiritual integrity, and how to be an eternal family (none of which I do very well but would not do at all without his friendship and guidance).
A small insight into my psyche: ... I hate bullies. I will go out of my way to humble a bully.
(Note: UPD wants to do short profiles on interesting political people, including elected officials at all levels, key staff, association leaders, etc. We make it easy by sending an e-mail with a list of questions. Send suggestions to: daily@utahpolicy.com.)
Washington Watch
Utah to Receive Nearly $24M
A Bob Bennett press release says the Senate Appropriations Committee has approved nearly $24 million for Utah transit, housing and economic development projects throughout the state. It includes $19.6 million for transit, with commuter rail to receive $9 million of the total for design and construction costs of the Ogden-Salt Lake line.
Hatch Promotes Bioterrorism Bill
Sen. Orrin Hatch spoke before the Bioterrorism and Public Health Preparedness Subcommittee regarding national biodefense, and encouraged passage of Bioshield II (S. 975). “I do not believe it is possible to understate the crisis that is looming,” he said in a press release.
Meanwhile, a San Francisco Chronicle editorial
says HHS is preparing for an epidemic of avian H5N1 influenza, and that Sec. Mike Leavitt is expected to decide who will receive the vaccine if the supply is limited. The editorial says vaccine-makers could produce 5 million doses a week. “That's not nearly enough. A ‘medium-level’ pandemic is expected to sicken some 90 million Americans.”
Colorado River Water Shortage
Utah policy makers with an interest in Colorado River water might be interested in a “Conservation Before Shortage” proposal produced by Environmental Defense.
Casual Friday
Best of Late Night Humor
Jay Leno: Thank you once again for coming out on another hot day. It was so hot McDonald’s employees were keeping cool by putting the frozen meat patties under their arms. It was so hot in Las Vegas, Roy was attacked by a snow leopard. It was so hot, Karl Rove was outing CIA agents for a Klondike Bar. In fact, it was so hot in Washington, people were standing behind President Bush just to get the breeze from all the backpedaling. It was so hot illegal aliens were passing through California and heading straight to Canada. . . . Did you all feel the ground shake last night? Did you feel that? It wasn’t an earthquake just the Supreme Court shifting another five feet to the right. . . . President Bush picked Judge John Roberts to be his nominee for the Supreme Court. The name was actually leaked to the press a couple of hours earlier. Boy that Karl Rove is unbelievable isn’t he? . . . President Bush said the job of the Supreme Court is extremely important because as you know these are the people who choose the president of the United States. . . . John Roberts is only 50 years old. That means if he serves for 30 years he could still be on the court when we finally pull out of Iraq. . . . Earlier this week, President Bush held a state dinner last night for the Prime Minister of India. Did you see them together? They made kind of an odd couple. I think it was the first time ever in the White House they ever had a cowboy and an Indian together. . . . The trial of Saddam Hussein is beginning. They say the evidence is so strong that even a California jury might convict him. . . . President Bush met with the Australian Prime Minister today. He said he's liked Australia ever since he found out that's where Schwarzenegger is from. . . . Hurricane Emily is hitting Mexico pretty hard. Luckily everyone down there is already up here. . . . Sylvester Stallone is going to make "Rocky: 6”...I believe in this one he’s going to fight Angela Lansbury. . . . I thought this was nice – earlier today Martha Stewart showed Karl Rove how to slip off an ankle monitor. .... Hillary Clinton gave a speech in Aspen, Colorado, and accused President Bush of damaging the economy by catering to the rich. Why was Hillary in Aspen, Colorado? Because she was catering to the rich.
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