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Rep. Cannon Likely to Face Serious Challenge in 2006
It appears Rep. Chris Cannon will face a formidable challenge for the GOP nomination in the 3rd Congressional District next year. Businessman John Jacob seems poised to jump into the race, although he’s not ready to confirm his candidacy or make a formal announcement.
Jacob is a successful real estate developer from Eagle Mountain in Utah County, and has been involved in other successful businesses.
This news, coming just in advance of the GOP State Organizing Convention on Saturday, will give delegates at the otherwise non-suspenseful convention plenty to talk about.
2006 seems to be the year that solid GOP challengers appear willing to take on entrenched incumbents. Most campaigns attract fringe candidates, but this year respected GOP legislator Steve Urquhart is challenging Sen. Orrin Hatch, and now Jacob appears ready to take on Cannon.
However, Jacob’s intra-party challenge to Cannon is probably more serious than Urquhart’s longshot bid to upset Hatch. I would categorize Cannon’s vulnerability as an incumbent as much higher than Hatch’s, and Jacob’s ability to self-fund a good portion of his campaign makes him an instant credible candidate if he does run.
With the exception of last year and his first election in 1996 against incumbent Bill Orton, Cannon has not had difficult re-election contests. Against Orton he spent $1.8 million, with $1.5 million of that his own money. Since then he generally hasn’t had to work hard to raise money and has started his campaigns late in the election season.
Last year, Cannon fought off Matt Throckmorton in a spirited convention battle and primary election (58% to 42%), and spent $634,000. That campaign was overshadowed by immigration issues, and national anti-immigration groups weighed in against Cannon (and they will, no doubt, return in this election cycle).
John Jacob is essentially an unknown quantity and will have to prove himself as a viable candidate. The intangibles of stature, presence, charisma and ability to inspire confidence are crucially important. People who know Jacob say he is a mainstream Republican who will run a very good race and won’t have the baggage of being a far-right arch-conservative. He is attempting to put together a solid campaign team with veterans like Ben Demke and Randy Minson.
Taking on a four-term incumbent is usually a good way to waste money and lose an election, but I’m guessing this intra-party squabble is going to be a real battle, making for interesting election drama over the next several months.
And it could actually become even more interesting if State Sen. Curt Bramble decides to leap into the already frothy fray.
SL County Demo News
An interesting new edition of the Salt Lake County Democratic Party newsletter has been posted. One thing I learned while reading the newsletter is where good Democrats go to learn how to spin messages: http://www.spinproject.org.
Urquhart Convention Invitation
Rep. Steve Urquhart has posted this invitation:
“Stop by our booth this Saturday at the Republican Party State Convention. We'd like to visit with you and, if you haven't signed up yet to help with the campaign, we'd love to welcome you to the team. It should be a fun day. We'll elect party leadership, vote on some resolutions and, after convention, I hear someone is catering a retirement party."
KCPW Focuses on Hot Topic
Immigration reform is a hot issue in Utah and nationally. Bryan Schott, news director at KCPW Radio (1010AM), will air an interview Thursday morning with Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo and Bay Buchanan, two anti-immigration zealots who are in Utah as guests of UFIRE, a Utah immigration reform group. The interview will air on Midday Metro at about 10 a.m.
Gov Race Revealed State of Utah Politics
What is the state of partisan electoral politics in Utah right now? Probably the best measure was the gubernatorial race last year between Jon Huntsman and Scott Matheson. It was a classic matchup of two highly attractive candidates, each articulate, well-qualified, with strong name identification. Each had sufficient funding to get their messages out. Both campaigns were well-run without major mistakes to skew the results. It was not a negative campaign, and while some analysts say Matheson should have drawn more of a contrast to give voters a reason to vote for him, the fact that he didn’t makes the race even more of a political bellwether. Citizens voted their natural inclinations without external factors skewing their choice.
So the outcome, I believe, is a pretty good indication of how politics shakes out in Utah as we get closer to a new election year. President Bush and Sen. Bob Bennett won by big margins in Utah, but their opponents were much weaker than Huntsman’s.
So, in that 2004 race, Huntsman beat Matheson 57.7% to 41.3%. That is probably a fairly reliable estimate of what a good Republican could expect to win against a good Democrat in a statewide race, all other things being equal.
Huntsman won every Utah county but four: Carbon, Grand, Salt Lake and Summit. Matheson was close in San Juan and Tooele and not too far behind in Weber. The only real bright spot for Democrats was Salt Lake County, where Matheson won by 20,000 votes. However, the tough hurdle for any Democrat who wants to win statewide is the fact that in the next two largest counties, Utah and Davis, Huntsman won by a whopping 98,327 votes. That is a very tough margin to make up, even with a big win in Salt Lake County.
Especially discouraging for any Democrat is Utah County, the state’s second largest, where Huntsman overwhelmed Matheson 71% to 26%, or 107,429 votes to 38,921, a difference of 68,508 votes.
The bottom line: I believe a really good Democratic candidate could beat a mediocre Republican candidate statewide in Utah. But if the Republicans nominate solid candidates who run good races with sufficient funding, it will be awfully difficult for a Democrat to win a statewide election for some time to come.
Wise Words
Our doubts are traitors,
And make us lose the good we oft might win
By fearing to attempt
--William Shakespeare |
Utah
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