(Note: Don't miss Media Watch, below.)
The Week Ahead
Robins, Bill Signing, and Filing Dealine
It may look like winter outside, but yesterday a flock of enthusiastic robins were flitting around my oak and apple trees, and a particularly noisy one awakened me from a nice Sunday afternoon nap. It’s not exactly like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano, but the robins returning to the Wasatch Front is a sure harbinger of spring.
Another early spring ritual is the governor dealing with the product of the 45-day legislative session, deciding which bills to sign, veto or ignore (allowing the law to take effect, but signaling gubernatorial disapproval). Today, Gov. Jon Huntsman signs the USTAR legislation at 11:30 a.m. at Myriad Genetics, 320 Wakara Way. Sen. Al Mansell and Rep. Dave Clark, the sponsors of the legislation, have been invited to the bill signing, along with Michael Young, president of the University of Utah, Stan Albrecht, president of Utah State, and Scott Anderson, CEO of Zions Bank, representing the business community.
Huntsman has until next Tuesday, March 21, to act on all the bills.
This is also the week we get to see the final list of candidates seeking political office this year. The filing deadline is Friday, March 17, which also happens to be St. Patrick’s Day. So wear green as you file for office, or your opponent might pinch you.
Utah Taxpayers Association Newsletter
The Utah Taxpayers Association has posted a PDF file of its March newsletter. This month's issue features articles on state spending, tax cuts, HB371, iProvo, and a column by Assoc. Pres. Howard Stephenson on the unfinished business of the 2006 Legislature. To read it, click here.
Utah Sierra Club Legislator Scorecards
The Utah Chapter of the Sierra Club has posted its 2006 Utah Legislator scorecards. The scorecards were based on how Utah's legislators made decisions "on critical environmental issues such as water development and conservation, transportation and energy." To see the results, click here.
Blog Watch
Polygamy, State Slogan, etc.
Vox Popoli thinks the legalization of polygamy may be inevitable: "Now, the Law of Unintended Consequences is about to fall with a vengeance upon those who sought to overthrow the traditional Western family in favor of an egalitarian model more to their liking" (see also here, here, and here)... Part of the Plan offers some advice to Sen. Bob Bennett (see also here)... Brett Crocket says of Utah's new state slogan: "Could be worse, should be better"... Argyleist endorses Pete Ashdown's Senate candidacy (see also here, here and here)... Paul Allen notes: "Some members of Congress are trying to make sure bloggers have freedom of speech and are not subject to Federal Election laws like PACs" (see also here)... Wilf Sommerkorn says Utah towns, large and small, need to be prepared for exposive growth.
Washington Watch
Hatch Endorses CDBG Program
Sen. Orrin Hatch endorses and defends the Community Development Block Grant program, which is facing a proposed $1 billion funding slash -- one-fourth of its budget (see press release).
Bennett: Economy Steady, Strong
Sen. Bob Bennett says the latest jobs numbers released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report reflect that the country’s economic expansion remains steady and strong (see press release).
Matheson: Norton Understood Western Issues
Rep. Jim Matheson issues statement on the resignation of Interior Sec. Gale Norton: "I hope Secretary Norton's replacement is someone who, like her, is from the West and who understands and appreciates our perspective and the complexity of Western issues" (see press release).
Media Watch: Part I
TV is Undergoing Massive Changes
By LaVarr Webb
(Note: Tomorrow I’ll write about how the TV revolution will impact politics.)
Here’s a modest prediction: In five years television will have changed so much that we will barely recognize it.
A veritable revolution is occurring in the entire media world, but television is going to bear the brunt of dramatic change over the next few years. It’s all driven by a simple, indisputable fact: everything is moving to the Internet. IPTV, or television delivered over the Internet, is going to change from a nascent computer application to the common way most everyone gets their news and entertainment.
In five years, most every bit of video ever produced, including television shows then current, will be available for download, on-demand, over the Internet. In five years, thousands of specialized micro-channels, or as the New York Times calls them, slivercasts, will be available over the Internet, featuring high-quality audio and video, covering every topic, hobby, area of interest and niche imaginable. TV will be totally democratized and fragmented.
In five years, you will be able to watch pretty much any TV show, any movie, at any time and in any place you like, as long as you can connect to the Internet. Computers and TVs will have merged, so you will be able to watch high-quality Internet feeds on your big-screen, high-definition TV.
Consider this: TV viewership of the Winter Games in Torino was way down this year. But the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Olympics Internet page views and video streaming was record-breaking. People turned to the Internet for original content and to truly experience the games, not just check results or TV listings. The official Games site featured 85 hours of video, and served 6.4 million video streams, or more than 72,000 hours of watched video.
That’s really not much compared to television viewing, but the Internet site didn’t offer live coverage or nearly as much rich content as it could have. And the trend is clear: TV is down, Internet is up. In fact, here’s what could easily happen: As more people get mega-broadband connections to the Internet so they can enjoy high-definition, broadcast-quality video on their computers and computer-connected television sets, an organization like the International Olympic Committee could bypass traditional TV entirely and broadcast everything over the Internet.
Why allow television networks to have part of the revenue when you could have it all? After all, the Internet has wider reach than any television network. The IOC could simply hire the reporters and producers and offer live coverage of every event, in addition to features, profiles of athletes, and so forth. Besides live coverage, every event and every story could be made available for viewing on-demand, any time, any place.
The experience would be far richer than watching an event on television, because it would be interactive. You could watch figure skating in one window and look up statistics and biographies of the ice dancers in another window. If an advertisement catches your eye, you could click on a button and make a purchase. The medium is far richer and more powerful for advertisers.
So who needs a TV network to distribute video of an event like the Olympics if Internet distribution is far superior and less costly?
And the same goes for the Superbowl, the NCAA basketball playoffs, a major rock concert, and so forth. Why should I watch something on old-fashioned TV, when I can have a far more interesting, rich and rewarding experience interacting with the event over the Internet on my big-screen, high-definition home theater?
In addition to these major events moving to the Internet, we can expect thousands of slivercasts or micro-channels to pop up covering every niche imaginable with high-quality audio and video, delivered over the Internet.
The New York Times on Sunday published a fascinating story noting that entrepreneurs and independent broadcasters are starting micro-channels on everything from vegetarian cooking to sailboat racing to poker, bicycling, lacrosse, photography, fine wine, horror films, obscure sitcoms and Japanese anime. “There is also a growing market for Webcasts of local news and entertainment from every country and in every language, aimed at expatriates” – all delivered over the Internet.
For this TV revolution to happen, mega-broadband Internet connectivity must be available to homes and offices, and the United States is far behind many nations in mega-broadband connectivity. The only thing that can slow down this explosion of TV micro-channels is lack of mega-broadband so that viewers can watch enjoy the slivercasts in broadcast quality, high definition Internet-delivered audio and video. Baby broadband like current DSL and cable modem offerings aren’t fast enough for a high-quality experience.
However, homes wired with fiber-optic cable, as offered by projects like iProvo and UTOPIA, will have plenty of bandwidth for the highest-quality video and audio over the Internet. They will be able to take full advantage of Internet movie offerings from Amazon, which is in discussions with major motion picture studios about making their content available on-line, both for rental and purchase.
Many of the biggest companies in the world, including Microsoft, Google, Times Warner, AT&T, Apple, eBay, Yahoo, etc., in addition to thousands of startup companies, are and will be offering all sorts of on-demand video over the Internet, including movies, TV shows, training programs, games, videoconferencing, home medical monitoring services, etc, etc.
There are no barriers to entry. The limited options and chokepoints of video delivery over traditional TV networks and channels are long gone. Today every Web site can be a broadcast station, and with a worldwide audience, even small niches can offer large, lucrative markets.
Google has launched a service for consumers to pay to download television shows and movies from CBS (current shows and 300 episodes of classic shows), the National Basketball Association, and other sources. Any company can sell its video through Google. All sorts of video will also be packaged to watch on mobile phones, iPods and other devices.
USA Today reported that AOL/Time Warner will webcast 300 episodes a month of 100 classic TV series. They will be shown free, on-demand, with four 15-second commercials per episode on AOL.com. The shows are streamed and can’t be downloaded to a computer hard drive.
CBS and NBC are making such popular prime-time shows as “Survivor” and “Law & Order” available for downloading and viewing any time. Apple Computer and Walt Disney are allowing episodes of popular shows like “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost” available for downloading to a video iPod. Sprint Nextel last week announced a deal that will dramatically increase the amount of content available for viewing on cell phones. Other cellular companies are following suit.
Cable companies are increasing their video-on-demand offerings (Comcast offers 3,800 movies and programs, most of them free). Google wants to make all video offerings from all sources searchable. Old advertising models are completely up in the air as advertisers figure out how to operate in this increasingly fragmented environment. The on-line advertising market is expected to grow from $14.7 billion in 2005 to $26 billion by 2010, while traditional television, newspaper and magazine advertising declines, according to Forrester Research. |
