The Week Ahead
On Tuesday evening at 5:30 p.m. at the regularly scheduled Salt Lake City Council meeting, the LDS Church will unveil its long-awaited plans for its downtown commercial property, especially the two malls on either side of Main Street. …A few legislative committees meet this week. See legislative calendar. ... on Thursday, former Democratic U.S. Sen. Zell Miller keynotes fundraiser for Parents for Choice in Education PAC, 7 p.m., Sheraton City Centre. Contact Lincoln Fillmore, 801-548-0144. … For other political events, see Utah Policy Daily calendar.
On-Line Candidate Debates
John Mulholland has created a new Web site where candidates from various Utah races can debate. Mulholland said debates for candidates from Congressional District 1 and the U.S. Senate are currently on-line and others will be added, including local races, in the coming weeks. He encourages interested citizens to visit the site.
National Politics
The 50-State Strategy
Excellent (but very lengthy) New York Times Magazine article on National Democratic Chairman Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy and his attempt to make over the Democratic Party.
Media Watch
Public Good vs. Profit
The uneasy relationship between public newspaper companies and Wall Street is documented in this interesting New York Times column by Richard Siklos.
Blog Watch
Reach Upward says Gov. Huntsman's proposed congressional redistricting plan "would violate the Constitution for a little bit of short term political power. Let me say it bluntly: THIS IS WRONG!" (see also here, here, and here)... Utah Taxpayer reports: "RDA growth rate in 2005 was significantly lower than the annualized RDA growth rate for the previous ten years. This is good news for taxpayers, school districts, and existing businesses that have to compete against companies receiving RDA subsidies. Will this trend of slower RDA growth continue? Maybe. This is not the first time RDA growth has slowed only to be followed by explosive growth in the following year"... At Times & Seasons, Russell Arben Fox criticizes Mormon legislators for voting in favor of the Military Commissions Act of 2006 (see also here)... CoolestFamilyEver says: "Reports are showing that Utah is tied for having the lowest rate of unemployment in the nation. This only means good things. One, it means we're growing our economy briskly without Gov. Huntsman's tax reform plans. Two, it means wages are going up because of the tight labor market, making an increase in the minimum wage as ill-timed and unnecessary as ever. Three, it showcases Utah's excellent economic environment to employers and employees considering a move. If what you're doing is working, you don't need to try and pre-emptively fix it. Gov. Huntsman and the minimum wage proponents need to pipe down and let us enjoy the good times"... At Out of Context says New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, at Friday's Western States Presidential Primary Symposium in SLC, "noted the regional food presidential candidates are required to eat on the campaign trail. During his state's 2004 caucuses, the Democratic candidates had to swallow down green chiles and enchiladas -- over and over again. When Utah's Western States Presidential Primary brings candidates to the Beehive State in 2008, Richardson wondered, 'Are you going to make them eat green Jello with shredded carrots?' Then he paused. 'Is that funny?' he asked. 'This is my speechwriter. I don't want to leave here with bad vibes.' No worries, governor. We have an Olympic pin commemorating that strange gastronomical adventure. You can skip the Jello salad on your way through town. But don't miss the sour-cream-and-cheese-laden potatoes guaranteed to send you to the hospital for a bypass" (see also here and here)... At Plato's Cave, George Pyle says: "There are two questions hanging over Utah's first general election using the new Diebold Election Systems electronic touch-screen voting system. One: Will people who want to steal the election be able to hack the system to their nefarious ends? Two: Will people who only want to cast their true and legal ballots be able to understand the dang machines and vote for who they really wanted to vote for? Salt Lake County Clerk Sherrie Swensen utters a curt rejection of the first concern. 'You can't do it,' she firmly told The Salt Lake Tribune Editorial Board when she called on us last week. I don't think she's lying. But I still don't believe her. That's because I've read the second of two scathing articles in Rolling Stone by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the newest one called 'Will The Next Election Be Hacked?'" ... Bob Aagard is unhappy with UPD's wall-to-wall coverage of Mitt Romney news... In an interview with Article VI Blog, Mormon filmmaker and Mitt Romney supporter Mitch Davis, the creator RunMittRun.org, says of Gov. Huntsman's presidential endorsement of Sen. John McCain: "[W]hat is [McCain] really trying to do? That's the question. What, I think it's clear that what he is trying to do is split the Mormon -- not split the Mormon vote, but, but torpedo Mitt's candidacy a little bit in terms of taking some of the momentum he might get out of his Mormon core. There is really no other reason to do that. But I don't want to focus on the negative. The positive, for me the positive is this clearly to me shows that John McCain knows who his worthiest opponent is, and who his opponent is likely to be" (see also here, here, here, here, here, here, and here).
Washington Watch
The Hatch Report
Sen. Orrin Hatch gives "his support to legislation that would authorize building a fence to protect against rampant illegal immigration" (see press release); Hatch says critics of the Bush administration are "cherry-picking" and "politicizing" the recently declassified National Intelligence Estimate "to represent an inaccurate picture of the war on terrorism" (press release); Hatch introduces "a bill to give teachers an unlimited tax deduction for their out-of-pocket expenses" (press release); Hatch criticizes Democrats for obstructing "the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Treatment Modernization Act, which would amend the formula for awarding grant funds to consider the number of HIV/AIDS cases in metropolitan areas" (press release); Hatch joins "his Senate colleagues in unanimously approving the Department of Defense spending bill for the next fiscal year. The measure, which passed overwhelmingly in the House Tuesday, includes ... several key programs that Hatch requested for Utah military installations" (press release); the Senate approves a bill sponsored by Hatch that allows "the exchange of two small parcels of land between the Boy Scouts of America (BSA) Utah National Parks Council and Brian Head Ski Resort" (press release); Hatch taps Utah students for Senate internships (press release).
Bennett Secures $$ for Guard
Sen. Bob Bennett helps "obtain over $14 million for training programs that will greatly benefit the National Guard, including soldiers in Utah, in preparing for wartime operations" (see press release).
Matheson: Curb Warrantless Wiretapping
Rep. Jim Matheson endorses HR 5825, "a measure that defines conditions for electronic eavesdropping by federal security officials and that includes more oversight by Congressional committees." Says Matheson: "If al Qaeda is calling, I want our intelligence agencies listening in. At the same time, FISA was passed before enemy communications included cell phones and e-mails. This bill brings in the FISA court, prevents the government from trampling on Americans' privacy rights and creates greater Congressional oversight" (see press release).
Utah’s Top Issues
It’s important for Utah policymakers and opinion leaders to be aware of and up-to-speed on the top issues facing the state. Here is our weekly list, generated by observing what’s hot in the news media, what’s on the agenda of various policymaking groups, and what’s being discussed among opinion leaders and policymakers. We welcome suggestions and input from UPD readers. E-mail daily@utahpolicy.com.
Hottest of the Hot
Emerging
- Education achievement gap of disadvantaged students
- Free speech zones at Capitol
- Western states primary
- SLCIA nonstop service to Europe
- 4th congressional seat for Utah
- Tolling on highways
- Snake Valley water pumping for Las Vegas
- SITLA land sale on Green River
- Minimum wage increase
Mature
- 2006 election campaigns
- Downtown SLC revitalization
- Immigration
- Washington County land sales
- Open space funding
- Guns at college
Getting Old (but not totally resolved)
Oldies But Goodies
- Banks/Credit Unions
- Highway funding
- Vouchers/School Choice
- Tax cuts vs. education funding
- No Child Left Behind
- Healthcare reform/Intermountain Healthcare
Veterans’ Legislative Priorities
Frank Maughan, vice chair, Veterans Affairs Advisory Council, and state commander, Military Order of the Purple Heart, writes to UPD:
“The veterans of the state are assembling their legislative priorities for the 2007 legislative session. At the top of their priorities is asking the state to advance the total cost to construct a second Veterans Nursing Home, in western Weber County. A total cost of $15 million, of which the federal government will ultimately repay about 66%.”
The Future of Polling?
Louis Jacobson, the deputy editor of Roll Call newspaper, recently published an interesting Out There column on new polling methodologies that use automated phone calls and on-line questionnaires. In Utah, KSL TV/Radio frequently uses SurveyUSA for quick surveys on local issues. Here are some excerpts from Jacobson’s column:
It’s no secret that dueling methodologies have spawned bad blood between traditional pollsters and rivals such as SurveyUSA, Rasmussen Reports and Zogby International. But if the traditionalists were hoping to keep marginalizing firms that use pre-recorded phone calls rather than live interviewers (as SurveyUSA and Rasmussen do) or that conduct their polls online (as Zogby does), then the old-line pollsters seem to have failed.
Most old-line pollsters vociferously argue that only trained poll-takers effectively can record the public’s views. The newcomers argue, just as vociferously, that their automated questions are equally reliable — and in some ways are even more reliable, because they offer a standardized inflection for every question asked. And Zogby president and CEO John Zogby insists that his online polls — using a demographically balanced database of both “regular” respondents and newly cycled names — also have become reliable.
… it’s hard to ignore the developing consensus among political professionals, especially outside the Beltway, that nontraditional polls have gone mainstream this year like never before. In recent months, newspapers and local broadcast outlets have been running poll results by these firms like crazy, typically without defining what makes their methodology different — something that sticks in the craw of traditionalists. And in some cases, these new-generation polls have begun to influence how campaigns are waged.
SurveyUSA has made its name on 50-state tracking polls. It releases an approval number for President Bush, for all 50 governors and for all 100 Senators every 30 days — what the firm’s editor, Jay Leve, calls “a monumental undertaking” and unprecedented in polling history.
“I think 2006 is a breakthrough year,” Zogby said. “I have absolutely noticed an uptick in coverage and attention.”
The nontraditional polls seem to have made an especially big splash in smaller-population states and media markets, where traditional polls — which are more expensive — are considered uneconomical. Now, nontraditional polls provide local reporters with a wealth of information, either at little or no cost to their employer.
Of course, not everyone agrees that nontraditional polls are being greeted unquestioningly by journalists and campaign professionals. Calling them "wholly unreliable," one political journalist in Sacramento, Calif., said mainstream reporters tend not to cover nontraditional polls, even when campaign officials cite them.
Still, several factors explain the general flowering of nontraditional polls. One is the explosion of blogs.
"Slowly but surely, nontraditional polls are gaining a foothold in Michigan, particularly because of the increasing use and impact of the Internet, where the campaigns and bloggers have a tendency to use what suits them," said Bill Ballenger, publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. "Furthermore, these polls have proven to be just as accurate in Michigan during the past couple of years as have the other, mainstream state-based polls, several of which don't have a history much longer than, say, Zogby's."
Scott Rasmussen, the head of Rasmussen Reports, said he agrees that the Internet has made companies like his possible.
"The driving force behind all of this is the Internet, which makes more information of all kinds available, from polling data to amateur videos," he said. "The Internet and the online political community is reshaping politics. Our polling data is just a minor part of the change. Economically, our business model only works because of the Internet."
The business model for nontraditional pollsters varies somewhat. Rasmussen sells subscriptions to its polling data and advertising on its Web site. SurveyUSA partners with newspapers and television stations that foot the costs of a poll. Zogby does traditional polls as well as its online surveys, in which it partners with The Wall Street Journal. |
