The Week Ahead
Lots of political events this week. For all of them, see UPD’s political calendar. ... State legislators will be swarming Capitol Hill this week as a full slate of task force, commission and interim committee meetings are scheduled. See legislative calendar. Click on a meeting for notices and agendas. The meetings will include some important annual reports from organizations such as USTAR, along with reports on efforts like the state’s information technology consolidation initiative.
Monday Musing
The Long-Term Trends
Whether Republicans maintain or lose control of Congress on Nov. 7, the country will remain nearly evenly divided as measured by representation. However, if demographic and ideological trends are to be believed, the Democrats have a big challenge ahead to maintain their political strength.
They have a couple of important things working against them over the long term. One is that national polls show that self-identified conservatives outnumber self-identified liberals by a 2-1 margin. To become a dominant party once again, the Democrats must become more moderate to appeal to the broad swath of centrist voters. They would have to stop allowing the angry left and ultra-liberal bloggers and writers to define the party and drag it to the left. That’s not easy to do, because the arch-liberals supply much of the Democrats’ energy, fundraising, and grassroots organizing apparatus.
Second, the Democrats are fighting basic demographics and population trends. Heavily Democratic districts contain fewer married people and fewer children than heavily Republican districts. Republicans represent most of the growth areas. That’s a big problem, long-term, for Democrats.
So the Democrats might get a big win in November and they will remain competitive in presidential elections for at least the foreseeable future. But they must move back to where the people are, both ideologically and geographically, to be the party of the future.
Married Couples a Minority
Article: “The survey (showing married couple are now a minority of American households) revealed wide disparities in household composition by place. The proportion of married couples ranged from more than 69 percent in Utah County, Utah, which includes Provo, to 26 percent in Manhattan, which has a smaller share of married couples than almost anyplace in the country” (New York Times).
Blog Watch
Paul Rolly notes: "Here is an interesting idea proffered by Republican candidate Art Haddow in House District 31 and embraced by his opponents, Democratic incumbent Larry Wiley and Libertarian Cabot Nelson. Beginning [today], the three will engage in a series of online debates that will avoid all the problems of live, face-to-face debates such as scheduling conflicts. Haddow says each candidate can respond to a specific set of questions about their stands on key issues. Then voters can pose questions for each of the candidates. The Cyber-Debate will allow each candidate to take 48 hours to respond to each of the key issue questions. 'This format, while innovative, allows voters to actually interact with the candidates who are trying to earn their trust,' Haddow said. ... Each candidate will be provided an opportunity to address five key issues over a 10-day period. Once the 48-hour period ends on each question, the responses of each candidate will be locked and the next issue will be open for debate. After the conclusion of the key five issue Cyber-Debate elements, each candidate will be provided the opportunity to respond to one voter question submitted to the Web site for each of 10 days. The start date will be October 16th with Education as the first issue. Four other issues, Transportations, Taxation, Job Creation and Economic Development, and Health Care will follow over the next 8 days"... At Out of Context, Heather May reports: "Salt Lake City hasn't elected a Republican mayor since 1971. That candidate, Jake Garn, is backing another Republican who wants to be mayor. Garn, who left City Hall and became a U.S. senator from 1974 to 1992, has endorsed Keith Christensen, according to a news release. Christensen is a former city councilman who owns Top Stop convenience stores and a company that manufactures aircraft parts. The release plays up Garn's political party, while also saying the race -- which officially is nonpartisan -- shouldn't be partisan. 'I support Keith because I know his focus is on making Salt Lake a better place for everyone here, and because he has the leadership ability to be very successful as mayor,' Garn says in the release. Mayor Rocky Anderson, a liberal Democrat, also has endorsed Christensen, though you would barley know it from the news release: 'Christensen is known as a moderate Republican, but he has previously received notable endorsement from the Democrat side of the political aisle. Garn's prominent support balances the endorsements Christensen has received'"... At By Common Consent, J. Nelson-Seawright explains why "Mormons ought to ... work to remove Republicans from political office -- regardless of whether the Democrats seem to be better or worse on the issues"... GetReligion says of likely '08 presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Mormonism: "[L]et me flash back to the Rocky Mountain News in the mid-1980s, when I had a chance to interview two of the 12 members of the top rank of Latter-day Saints apostles. I brought lots of marked-up reading materials with me to Salt Lake City and asked some very specific questions with the audiotape running. On the record, they confirmed that -- if taken to its logical conclusions (as man is, God once was) -- Mormon theology would, in essence, be polytheistic. Yes, there are many worlds with their own gods (and the gods have wives) who are humans who have evolved to divinity. In LDS doctrine, this is called 'exaltation.' ... I went back to Denver to transcribe my interview tapes. Overnight, the Mormon press office rushed a transcript that included everything in the interview, except for the smoking-gun quote about polytheism. I wrote them back and let them know that my tape included that quotation and that I would be using it. Was there a problem with that? There was no word back from Utah. They knew that I knew that they knew what I knew. So, yes, this is the ticking time bomb of a subject facing a Mormon political leader who wants to run in a GOP primary, especially below the Bible Belt" (see also here).
Washington Watch
Bush Designates Heritage Area
President Bush approves legislation sponsored by Sen. Bob Bennett "that will establish the National Mormon Pioneer Heritage Area along Utah's Highway 89 and highlight and preserve Utah's pioneer heritage and showcase local heritage-related businesses and products in the state." Says Bennett: "I'm extremely pleased that after years of moving this bill through the legislative process President Bush has signed the National Mormon Pioneer Heritage Area into law. This is a fitting tribute to Utah's pioneers and one that will help promote economic development and preserve our unique heritage for future generations" (see press release).
National Politics
Comprehensive National Journal cover story on the impact of the economy on the election this year.
Utah’s Top Issues
It’s important for Utah policymakers and opinion leaders to be aware of and up-to-speed on the top issues facing the state. Here is our weekly list, generated by observing what’s hot in the news media, what’s on the agenda of various policymaking groups, and what’s being discussed among opinion leaders and policymakers. We welcome suggestions and input from UPD readers. E-mail daily@utahpolicy.com.
Hottest of the Hot
- High gas prices
- Cyber-safety issues (cyber predators, child pornography, identity theft, Internet scams, etc.)
Emerging
- Education achievement gap of disadvantaged students
- Western states primary
- SLCIA nonstop service to Europe
- 4th congressional seat for Utah
- Tolling on highways
- Snake Valley water pumping for Las Vegas
- SITLA land sale on Green River
- Minimum wage increase
Mature
- 2006 election campaigns
- Downtown SLC revitalization
- Immigration
- Washington County land sales
- Open space funding
- Guns at college
Getting Old (but not totally resolved)
Oldies But Goodies
- Banks/Credit Unions
- Highway funding
- Vouchers/School Choice
- Tax cuts vs. education funding
- No Child Left Behind
- Healthcare reform/Intermountain Healthcare
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