Stock Market Prophet Scores
Utah economist Jeff Thredgold is crowing in his weekly Tea Leaf economic update newsletter because he predicted back in January that the Dow would hit 12,000 in 2006. He admits, “… it’s better to be lucky than good,” but lists the four reasons mentioned in last January’s newsletter why it would be a good year for stocks: Action by the Federal Reserve, foreign stock markets outperforming the U.S. market and the likelihood of a catchup, Baby Boomers getting serious about investment, and billions of $$ leaving real estate for the stock market. Thredgold expects the good times to continue.
Blog Watch
At the Senate Site blog, Sen. Bev Evans announces her resignation: "Many of you know this was to be my last year in the legislature. It has turned out to be a difficult one. My husband passed away unexpectedly and then several other serious challenges have arisen since that time. For many reasons, I needed to find a job and/or a meaningful cause with which to be active and engaged. I found both. An opportunity came up to work for rural economic development in the executive branch. I can't work in both branches of government at the same time so I need to say goodbye to my legislative family two months early. Serving in the Utah State Legislature was one of my life's great experiences. My colleagues and the many people with whom I have shared work, time, and memories have been wonderful. My constituents are among the best people on earth and I have represented them as well as I know how"... At New West, Tracy Medley says: "Rep. Chris Cannon was on hand as President Bush signed the Military Commissions Act of 2006 in Washington D.C. on Tuesday. ... [A Cannon press release] summarizes the bill, saying it would; 'create a new judicial system to prosecute terrorists, provide basic fairness in prosecutions, and protect soldiers on the battlefield' all while purportedly complying with international and U.S. law. ... Cannon's summary of the bill fails to mention two things; first that the bill will apply to American citizens and secondly the suspension of habeas corpus. So, in theory any American citizen suspected of terrorism could be imprisoned without proof or evidence. ... Such sweeping changes to our fundamental civil liberties beg the questions: must we choose between bodily and civil protection under the law? Has it really come to that? And what does the future hold for this law when the war on terrorism is over? Chris Cannon and others may be proud today, but will they still be proud tomorrow?"... The Park Record Blog asks: "Summit County voters will mark their ballots electonically on Nov. 7. Do you think the new Diebold machines will be more or less reliable than the old punch cards? Is this the end of democracy or the wave of the future?"... Jesse Harris says: "I've seen many nasty comments left on blogs (particularly political ones) by those who choose to remain anonymous. No name, no e-mail address, no blog site, not even a pseudonym. It bothers me that someone can think 'hey, I'm going to be a jerk and suffer none of the repercussions!' I have a rule for myself: accountability for what I say and what I write. I don't hide behind a pseudonym, I always provide a way that I can be contacted, and I don't set out on a mission to stir the pot. What amazes me about these people is that they wouldn't act that way if you were having the conversation face-to-face. Add in a pinch of anonymity or even just the distance of the Internet and you get the kind of bad behavior that even children know isn't okay. It's kind of the same as road rage. I think about all that can be done about anonymous cowards is to let them do their thing and show the world how pathetic they are. They'll get the message sooner or later"... In a post on politics and civility, Micah Bruner says: "In many ways our country's political system is comparable to its legal system. It is designed to be 'adversarial.' Opposing parties present their respective positions, and then a jury or judge hands down a verdict. ... [C]ivility is not the result of us pretending to be without differences. It does not result from us saying only nice things about one another. It actually comes about when we frankly discuss the issues, expose our differences, and enable a just verdict to be reached. As a Republican partisan, I see my role as being that of someone who makes the case for my party's candidates -- sometimes that even includes prosecuting, if you will, the Democrat candidates. Having said that, in a court of law a certain level of decorum is also mandated. An everything goes, free-for-all, food fight atmosphere simply would not produce justice. Thus, like so many other things, it comes down to finding the right balance. Besides being clear, honest, and direct, we must also be composed, reasoned, and respectful"... At Out of Context, Rebecca Walsh reports: "Utah Economic Development executive Brett Heimburger tried to give members of the state's trade mission delegation a few cultural sensitivity pointers Tuesday morning. Rather than spurning the ubiquitous tea offered at formal meetings in China, Heimburger urged Utah business managers to simply not drink the stuff. 'If you don't drink tea, that's fine. Just please don't reject it. That's a bit offensive,' Heimburger said. Or, he suggested, 'you can put it up to your lips and put it down.' The same probably goes for wine. At an evening reception the same day, servers for the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade placed half-full glasses of red wine in front of Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr. and House Speaker Greg Curtis, both members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. At last sighting, those glasses remained untouched"... At The Corner, Kathryn Jean Lopez passes along a reader's pithy observation about likely '08 presidential candidate Mitt Romney's Mormonism: "An e-mail: Subject: Mormon issue (from a Christian): 'The choice between a Mormon and a Democrat is equivalent to the choice between eating ice cream and being stabbed in the eye with a fork. There isn't a choice'" (see also here).
Campaign Tip
Stay Out of “The Tunnel”
Former Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt tells a story about how he learned an important campaign lesson. In 1976 he was running Dixie Leavitt’s campaign for governor. The primary election was just a few days away and the young campaign manager had been working incredibly hard, focusing every bit of energy and attention on the campaign. It was all he could think about; he was constantly focused on strategy and all the myriad details of a statewide campaign.
So on a Saturday afternoon he was driving past Liberty Park. He looked out the window and almost to his surprise he saw people playing Frisbee, jogging, walking dogs and eating at picnic tables.
He recalls becoming almost angry: “Don’t these people know there’s a crucial election just a few days away? Don’t they know how important this is? How can they be out there playing when there’s so much at stake and so much to do?”
Then, says Leavitt, he realized he was making a very bad mistake. He was “in the campaign tunnel.” He had lost perspective, lost his feel for what average people were thinking and doing.
Descending into “the tunnel” is dangerous because you forget that the vast majority of people aren’t paying attention to politics, they aren’t following every campaign story in the newspapers, or paying much attention to TV news. They just aren’t interested. An effective campaign manager or candidate understands this and takes it into account in a number of ways.
Candidates and campaign workers who get into “the tunnel” and remain there are more likely to make bad decisions. They might, for example, be the subject of a bad or good news story and think that everyone in the world has seen it and it’s having a big impact when, in reality, it accounts for a tiny blip. They might overreact in a number of ways. They might not make extra efforts to reach average citizens because they think they’re already paying attention.
That’s why it’s important to be grounded in reality throughout the campaign, to interact with people outside the campaign and keep the campaign in the right perspective. It might be the absolutely most important thing in the world to you. You might be eating, drinking, breathing and living politics. But if you start to think others are like you, you’ll run a very bad campaign. It’s a particularly important lesson to keep in mind right at the end of a campaign.
Greens Oppose Gas Drilling Plans
The Wilderness Society condemns the Bush Administration for "putting plans in place to approve more than 118,000 new gas and oil wells on public lands in Utah, Wyoming, New Mexico, Colorado, and Montana over the next two decades, which is nearly double the current total number of producing wells on public lands throughout the Rocky Mountains. The drilling boom and its devastating implications for Western public lands are documented in a new Wilderness Society preliminary analysis, which was released [yesterday] along with a list of 17 still wild but unprotected areas threatened by oil and gas drilling that the group calls Too Wild to Drill. The list includes five sites in Colorado, four in Wyoming, and 8 others in Alaska, California, Montana, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Utah" (see press release).
Wise Words
“I love a dog. He does nothing for political reasons.”
—Will Rogers (Source: The Federalist Patriot) |
