The Week Ahead
The holidays are upon us, and we could all use a break from politics. Things will surely slow down over the next few weeks, but two important issues will continue to make headlines. The first is the redistricting process, which is a crucial first step if Utah is to obtain a fourth congressional seat next year. A new Redistricting Committee has been formed and meetings scheduled for 8 a.m. today and Tuesday in W135. (See Monday’s agenda and Tuesday’s agenda.)
The second issue is the prioritization process for Salt Lake County transportation projects to be funded from new sales tax revenue authorized by Proposition 3. Last week, the Executive Appropriations Committee sent the SL County Council of Governments back to the drawing board to add more detail to the process. The local government leaders are developing a detailed proposal and expect to return to the Legislature in December to try again. For other political events this week, see the UPD political calendar.
Correction
In Friday’s UPD I wrote that in the national reapportionment after the 2010 census the number of seats in the U.S. House would revert back to 435 from 437 if two seats are added next year for Utah and the District of Columbia. Salt Lake Tribune reporter Thomas Burr wrote to say that my observations were “interesting but inaccurate.” The current House legislation, contrary to an earlier report I read, would make the two new seats permanent, not temporary, which would relieve concerns that Republicans would be disadvantaged long-term by giving Democrats a permanent D.C. seat while Utah would be getting a 4th seat anyway in 2012. If the two new seats are permanent then the deal would be fair to both parties over the long term.
Monday Musings
Why Prop. 3 & Opinion Question Won
The campaign for Proposition 3 in Salt Lake County and the Opinion Question in Utah County was one of the most interesting I’ve ever been involved with. It is difficult to ask people to raise their own taxes, and it’s remarkable that both proposals won by such overwhelming margins (64% for Prop. 3 and 69% for Opinion Question).
Several factors were working against the campaign:
- An extremely short campaign period. The Prop. 3 campaign was up and running literally only five weeks before election day. That’s because no one knew if there would even be a campaign until the Legislature met in special session to authorize Salt Lake County to put the proposal on the ballot. The campaign was further delayed hoping a project list would emerge.
- The ballot language was terrible, which is usually the kiss of death for a ballot proposal.
- Voters were confused and didn’t know what projects they were voting for; confusion is the biggest threat to a ballot proposal.
- The proposals in Utah and Salt Lake counties had different names and different ways the money would be spent, so it was hard to run a unified campaign for both counties.
- The campaign was underfunded and the advertising effort lacked enough gross rating points to pound home key messages.
Despite those challenges, both proposals won handily. The reason, I believe, is very simple: Voters are tired of congestion and they believe strongly that a region-wide system of rail transit is needed. Salt Lake County voters simply love the TRAX system and they want more. In every survey done by the campaign or by the news media, TRAX enjoyed enormous support. Voters didn’t allow the confusion over projects or the ambiguous ballot language to deter them. They want more TRAX lines and that’s the way they voted. Utah County voters overwhelmingly voted for commuter rail.
Clearly, the fact that the campaign had no organized opposition was a big factor in the victory. And while early news media coverage, which focused on the lack of a list of projects, tended to be negative, the media coverage at the end of the campaign was mostly helpful and positive.
But I think everyone, including myself, simply underestimated the underlying support for the TRAX and commuter rail systems. That, really, is what carried the day.
Washington Watch
Bennett Appointed to Leadership
Senate Republican Leader-elect Mitch McConnell appoints Sen. Bob Bennett "to serve as Counsel during the 110th Congress. As counsel to McConnell, Bennett will advise the leader on legislative strategy and policy, help set the Senate Republican agenda, and attend all leadership meetings. This is Bennett's second leadership position, having served as chief deputy majority whip to McConnell during the 108th and 109th Congresses" (see press release).
Matheson Supports Delta
Rep. Jim Matheson says of US Airways' proposed takeover of Delta Airlines: "Delta has long been a valuable community partner in Utah. The company and its employees are major contributors to our state's economy and quality of life. As a Utah representative, I remain committed to ensuring that Delta emerges as a strong competitor with its major Western US hub in Salt Lake City" (see press release).
Groups Oppose Growth Bill
A "broad array" of groups voice their opposition to Bennett's and Matheson's proposed Washington Co. growth bill, including the Outdoor Industry Association, "the Shivwits Band of the Paiutes, archeologists, Taxpayers for Common Sense, and virtually all local and national conservation groups" (see Wilderness Society press release).
Local Watch
ULCT Interim Report
The Utah League of Cities and Towns has posted a Legislative Session Interim Report with comments on several current issues. To read it, click here.
High Bankruptcy Rates in Utah
This week's issue of "Making an Impact," United Way of Salt Lake's bi-weekly e-newsletter, highlights an interesting study of Utah's propensity for bankruptcies and the aspects of financial instability that contribute to it. Entitled "Living on the Edge: Utahns' Perspectives on Bankruptcy and Financial Security," the study is the result of months of research, interviews and contributions by financial experts and other specialists throughout the community. One of the many findings: "one out of three Utahns is living paycheck to paycheck, has no health insurance or has inadequate health insurance."
National Politics
Republicans Out in Cold
Peggy Noonan predicts in her Wall Street Journal column that over the next two years President Bush will cooperate with the Democratic majority in Congress and ignore the Republicans.
Tribute to Freidman
Economist and former Harvard President Lawrence Summers pays tribute to Milton Freidman (New York Times).
Dems More Fun to Cover
In his “Off Message” media column NationalJournal.com William Powers writes: “Obviously, a divided government is full of the tensions that produce headlines. But a Democratic Congress is also anthropologically different from a Republican Congress -- messier, louder, looser-lipped, more colorful, newsier, and, for the media class's purposes, more fun.”
Blog Watch
At Out of Context, Robert Gehrke reports: "Some Republicans are suggesting Democratic control in the House might be short-term, given the number of Democrats who managed to tap voter discontent and win close races in Republican districts. But political junkies might be interested in the Senate Republicans' conundrum that Chris Cillizza points out at The Fix. In a nutshell, Republicans not only lost the Senate in 2006, but have a steep uphill battle if they want to re-take it in 2008. There are 22 Republican senators up for re-election in two years, while Democrats only have to protect a dozen seats. That means the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Sen. Chuck Schumer won't have their money spread thin trying to protect their majority. ... What's it mean for Utah? Well, as we reported after election day, Sen. Orrin Hatch and Sen. Bob Bennett have already had their hopes for chairing two premier committees -- Finance and Banking, respectively -- pushed back from 2009 to 2011. Hatch made the promise of the chairmanship a major selling point in his re-election. If Republicans can't re-take the Senate in 2008, the schedule slides another two years, meaning they would both have to run for another term and, if they go that route, both would be approaching 80 before they could possibly get the gavels".... Utah Taxpayer explains why "spending $290 million ... to build TRAX to the airport is an inefficient use of tax dollars".... Wilf Sommerkorn discusses the Wasatch Choices 2040 plan.... At SouthernUtahBlog, Ed Kociela says: "Are we going to sit back and allow this to happen again or are we going to go after the big dogs who want to bring the Divine Strake test back to the Nevada Test Site? Are we going to allow our children, our grandchildren and the rest of us to face poisoning from whatever gets shaken up off the floor of the NTS? Are we going to allow the federal government to once again pry open Pandora's box and start testing new nuclear devices? What are you prepared to do about it? It's time to place the power back into the hands of the people. Your ethnicity, religion and political party have nothing to do with it. We're all human, sharing the same air and water. Eating from the same garden. It's time to mobilize".... Paul Rolly explains why the campaign to elect a replacement for departing Utah GOP chairman Joe Cannon "could be intriguing".... In response to this Trib story on Nevada Sen. Harry Reid's Mormonism, The Warren says: "Everyone in the Great State of Utah knows that the Salt Lake Tribune is another New York Times wannabe. The Trib desperately wants to break the GOP hold on Utah and think[s] that accentuating Brother Reid's religion to the members of the LDS Church will do that" (see also here).... SLCSpin says: "So what do we do about constitutional questions regarding the [proposed] 4th [congressional] seat? If you believe the Governor, it's up to D.C. to worry about The Constitution. Of course when the NCLB was passed down, Utah's dashing politicos were tripping over themselves to defend the integrity of The Constitution against the attack of the killer unconstitutional concept. What was that prophesy about Mormon politicians, The Constitution, and a thread? Oh yeah, I remember: 'In the latter days, Utah's politicians will be raging hypocrites'" (see also here, here, here, here, here, and here).
Utah’s Top Issues
Here is our weekly issues list, generated by observing what’s hot in the news media, what’s on the agenda of various policymaking groups, and what’s being discussed among opinion leaders and policymakers. We welcome suggestions and input from UPD readers. E-mail daily@utahpolicy.com.
Hottest of the Hot
- Redistricting to create 4 congressional districts
- Prop. 3 transit, roads project list
- Utah’s big budget surplus: Cut taxes or spend it
- Cyber-safety issues (cyber predators, child pornography, identity theft, Internet scams, etc.)
Emerging
- Education achievement gap of disadvantaged students
- Western states primary
- Tolling on highways
- Snake Valley water pumping for Las Vegas
- SITLA land sale on Green River
- Minimum wage increase
Mature
- Downtown SLC massive construction
- Immigration
- Washington County land sales
- Open space funding
- Affordable heath insurance
Getting Old (but not totally resolved)
- Real soccer stadium
- High gas prices
Oldies But Goodies
- Banks/Credit Unions
- Highway funding
- Vouchers/School Choice
- Tax cuts vs. education funding/class size
- No Child Left Behind
- Healthcare reform/Medicaid
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