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 Today
in History
Jan. 3, 1989: Unsuccessful 1988 Democratic presidential
nominee Michael Dukakis announces he will not run for
a fourth term as governor of Massachusetts. (Source: National
Journal 2007 calendar of American politics)
Wise Words
"A Bible and a newspaper in every house,
a good school in every district ... are the principle support
of virtue, morality and civil liberty."
-- Benjamin Franklin (Source: Eigen’s
Political Quotes)
2007
Mayoral Analysis
Salt Lake City Tough for GOP
By James Seaman
Looking toward Salt Lake City’s 2007 mayoral contest,
the results of our most recent election may help illuminate
a seemingly clouded picture. After consecutive mayoral elections
in which two Democrats faced off, Republicans are eager to
earn a spot on the final ballot eleven months from now. Examining
the breakdown of voting preferences among Salt Lakers in 2006,
however, demonstrates the tough task Republicans face, at
least on paper.
Let’s assume that Ralph Becker, Dave Buhler, Keith
Christensen, Megan Holbrook, Nancy Saxton and Jenny
Wilson are the main contestants for the city’s top
job. If 2007 voting trends mimic those of 2006, Democratic
voters could split evenly among their four candidates and
still have a fair chance of winning the top two spots. That’s
because Democratic performance in Salt Lake City in the 2006
election averaged 70%.
If voter turnout matches that of the 1999 Mayoral primary,
we can expect close to 37% of Salt Lake City’s 97,507
registered voters to make an appearance at the polls in October.
Using 2006 as a guideline, 70% Democratic performance would
mean 25,064 votes. If those electors were to divide evenly
among the four Democratic candidates (Becker, Holbrook,
Saxton and Wilson), each hopeful would come away
with nearly 6,300 votes. If 2006 Republican voters, in turn,
split between Buhler and Christensen, each would
have 5,400 votes. Since the top two primary vote-getters advance
to the general, regardless of party affiliation, such a scenario
would ensure two Democratic finalists. Of course, votes are
not likely to be split in such an even manner. Even so, this
hypothetical situation illustrates the uphill battle that
Republicans face in Salt Lake City.
Another way of thinking about the Republican predicament
is to use the 1999 primary as a comparison. That year, a crowded
field of 11 candidates vied for DeeDee Corradini’s
soon-to-be vacant office. The second place finisher--Stewart
Reid--earned 19.5% of the vote. If we assume a candidate
needs 20% to earn a second place finish, and Republican performance
citywide hovers around 30%, the top Republican would need
two-thirds of his party’s votes in order to advance.
This leaves Dave Buhler and Keith Christensen fighting
over the same precarious perch, each candidate knowing he
must wallop the other in order to procure enough Republican
votes to survive and advance. With more candidates, the Democratic
bloodbath promises to provide even more carnage. Yet enjoying
more than a two-to-one advantage in party performance means
that Democrats can split their votes four ways and still potentially
send two finalists into November.
Republican candidates may, of course, position themselves
as moderates and attempt to siphon enough Democratic votes
to cross the 20% threshold and potentially achieve a top two
finish. Such a strategy, however, might also make a moderate
Republican vulnerable if his fellow party member stays to
the right and collects an overwhelming majority of Republican
votes.
Assuming that a Republican advances to the final election,
winning becomes even more difficult. Knowing that 30% of Salt
Lake City voters cast straight Democratic tickets in 2006
(as opposed to 11% of city residents going straight Republican)
means only 59% of the field is actually contested. While the
mayor’s race is non-partisan, those who vote straight-party
in federal races and state races are unlikely to switch parties
for a municipal contest. In a general election, with 30% of
voters solidly Democratic and a base of just 11%, a Republican
would have only 59% of the electorate from which to climb
out of a nearly three-to-one deficit. In other words, with
little more than 21,000 votes left up for grabs, a Republican
would have to capture almost 14,000 of them–two of every
three–in order to achieve the nearly 18,000 votes necessary
to win.
Taking a closer look at the 59% of non straight-party voters,
Democratic performance among the group was 68% in 2006. If
a Republican candidate in the final election were to retain
100% of the city residents who voted Republican in 2006 (with
turnout adjusted for a municipal election), he would still
be over 7,000 votes short of surpassing 50%. Assuming all
straight-party Democrats stay to the left, a Republican would
have approximately 14,300 Democratic-leaning voters from which
to cull the remaining 7,160 votes necessary for victory. To
put things more simply, if Republicans secure their entire
straight-party base along with every voter who leans Republican,
and Democrats retain their straight-party loyalists, a Republican
candidate must still capture 50% of Democratic-leaning voters
in Salt Lake City.
Of course, municipal races are less partisan than general
election contests, and upsets happen in politics. Both Buhler
and Christensen have won council races in the city.
Compelling candidates have the ability to transcend the bounds
of party loyalty. The numbers tell us that it will take just
such a candidate if a Republican hopes to win Salt Lake City’s
top job in 2007.
Blog Watch
Democracy for
Utah argues: "The free market is simply a bad fit
for healthcare (also see here
and here).
Insurance companies have figured out that they can maximize
their profits by insuring only healthy people, thus collecting
lots of revenue in insurance premiums while paying out very
little in claims." Paul
Allen talks football: "I believe it is inevitable
– manifest destiny if you will – that there will
eventually be some kind of national playoff and legitimate
national championship game in Division I college football.
We can’t continue to pretend forever that the BCS bowl
series is legitimate or fair. I don’t think it will last
too many more years." Lincoln
Shurtz looks at key legislative
issues for Utah in 2007. Utah
Taxpayers Association talks about taxing outputs, not
inputs.
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