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 Wise
Words
"Our cause is the cause of all mankind."
-- Benjamin Franklin (Source: Eigen’s
Political Quotes)
Blog Watch
The
Utah House reports Chris Herrod was named new legislator
for House District 62, Utah County, the seat formerly held
by Jeff Alexander. On the Senate
Site, Lyle Hillyard previews some of his bills
for the upcoming legislative session. SLCSpin
has numbers to suggest, "Underpaid teachers of Utah won’t
see a penny of any increase in funding because the Legislature
can’t increase teacher salaries. Districts do that. But
they won’t." NewWest:
says Utah’s potential minimum-wage hike sparks disagreement.
2006 Election Analysis
The Coattails of Jim Matheson
By James Seaman
Ever since Jim Matheson won his initial election in
2000, Utah Democrats have put their faith in the party’s
lone player on the national stage. Democrats hoped Matheson
could lead at least a modest revival of the party of Jefferson
and Jackson in Utah. And while Democrats have not made significant
gains during Matheson’s tenure, the latest election results
allow us to ask what–if any–coattails Congressman
Matheson provides to Democrats in Salt Lake County.
Conducting such a study proves tedious because of the inherent
difficulty in determining how much Democratic swing can be
attributed to Matheson. Democrats would probably carry precincts
in Salt Lake City regardless of who the party put up in the
Second Congressional District. U.S. Senate candidate Pete
Ashdown, for example, gained just 31% of the vote state-wide,
but won 66% of Salt Lake City’s ballots.
Results in the far southern end of Salt Lake County reveal
the opposite. Matheson’s annihilation of LaVar Christensen
in Salt Lake County (the Republican failed to hit the 30%
mark there) did not come without the surrendering of a handful
of precincts in Sandy and Draper. Salt Lake County’s
political diversity renders any attempt to generalize exceedingly
difficult. Instead of looking for a sweeping trend, we can
take a more precise approach and look at areas that straddle
the congressional district boundary. The decision of lawmakers
in 2001 to divide Salt Lake City along 700 East–and the
rest of the County along a line further west–allows us
to compare Democratic performance in precincts that border
one another while residing in different Congressional Districts.
In some instances, Matheson’s presence on the ballot
seemed to pay measurable dividends to Democrats in 2006. Sim
Gill, the Democratic candidate for Salt Lake County District
Attorney, performed at 57% in precincts that sat just inside
Matheson’s district. In those precincts located literally
across the street–just outside Matheson’s District–Gill
earned 53% of the vote countywide. At first glance, it seems
Matheson provided Gill a benefit of 4 points. Yet a portion
of these precincts reside in Salt Lake City, where Democrats
seem to perform well regardless of who leads the ticket. With
Salt Lake City precincts removed from the equation, Gill actually
saw a five point swing in border precincts within Matheson’s
district (44% to 39%).
Using the same criteria–Matheson v. non-Matheson border
precincts outside Salt Lake City–Democrat Jim Bradley
received a boost similar to the one Gill enjoyed. Bradley
won 51% of the vote in Matheson border precincts, as opposed
to 46% in non-Matheson border precincts. Bradley, an incumbent
who retained his Salt Lake County Council seat, gained 64%
of the vote in border precincts within the Matheson boundary
countywide. He took home 61% in border precincts just outside
Matheson’s district. In total, Gill’s numbers in
Matheson border precincts still fell below Bradley’s
numbers in non-Matheson border precincts. In this case, one
has to consider Bradley’s incumbency and name recognition
as factors that aided him regardless of Matheson’s presence
on the ballot. Clearly, one cannot assign a universal "Matheson
Bump" to Democrats throughout Salt Lake County. Factors
like incumbency or having a district in Salt Lake City provide
their own benefits to Democrats.
For challengers or newcomers without an established name
like Bradley’s, a boost from Matheson might be enough
to make the difference in a close election. Consider the fact
that Sim Gill won 65% of the vote in Salt Lake City but only
42% in the rest of the county. We know that Gill performed
at 44% in Matheson precincts that bordered non-Matheson precincts
outside Salt Lake City. Carrying that 44% performance countywide
(while maintaining his 65% clip in Salt Lake City) would have
given Gill a 1.8% swing for a 48.4% total. Assuming third
party candidate Rob Latham maintained his 3.5% share,
deducting Gill’s additional 1.8% from Lohra Miller’s
total would leave the Republican with 48.1%. That would give
Gill a razor-thin victory. The point here is not to play "what
if" games with Gill or any other Democrat. Rather, the
objective is to try and quantify what–if any–benefit
Jim Matheson provides to Democrats down the ballot. Taking
the Gill example, we can see that Matheson provides a measurable
bump to Democrats. While not always enough to ensure victory,
narrowly defeated Democrats like Gill might wonder where they
would be without their party’s leader.
Favorite Headlines
(Source: James Taranto’s Best of the Web in OpinionJournal.com)
They
Shoot Horses, Don't They?
"Uma Thurman Breaks Wrist, Shooting Delayed"--headline, United
Press International, Dec. 23
Who
Needs Alcohol?
"Parasite Makes Men Dumb, Women Sexy"--headline, Sydney Morning
Herald, Dec. 26
In
Search of New Worlds to Surrender To
"Planet-Hunting Satellite to Be Launched Today by French Agency"--headline,
Bloomberg, Dec. 27
'I
Shoulda Carried My Own Bag!'
"Porter Blamed for Missing Body"--headline, Times (Munster,
Ind.), Dec. 27
What
Other Species Do Our Emails Protect?
"Protecting Polar Bears: Your E-Mails"--headline, CNN.com,
Dec. 28
Why
Move the Whole Country if We Can Just Send Some Emails?
"U.S. Moves to Protect Polar Bears"--headline, CBSNews.com,
Dec. 27
The
Guys Who Do It Work for Tips
"Male Circumcision Economical"--headline, African News Dimension,
Dec. 26
That
Was Hard Film!
"Edward Norton: I Broke 3 Vertebrae on Film"--headline, CNN.com,
Dec. 28
Detroit's
Latest Woes
"Ford Assassination Attempts Recalled"--headline, Associated
Press, Dec. 2
Casual Friday
Outdoors Report
-- For the latest
wildlife news and information and the fishing
report visit the DWR website. Panguitch Lake is a
hot ice fishing spot.
Deseret Morning
News
- Lone
Wolf – Former Nordic Valley ski area emerges as a family-friendly
resort
- Cost
to hunt, fish may change in July
- New
fishing regulations begin at certain sites
- Outdoor
notes
Salt Lake Tribune
- Insider
briefs
- Wharton:
My predictions: Las Vegas will drain us, but the fish will
be biting
- Tight
Lines: Now's a good time to brush up on fishing rules
- Snowshoe
hike of the week: USA Bowl - Big Cottonwood Canyon
- Outdoor
shots
- Recreation
roundup
- Avalanche
safety classes and information
- Avalanche
facts
Winter
Trails day, Jan 5, with activities are various locations
in Utah. Winter Trails is a nationwide public awareness campaign
that promotes the health, fitness, social aspects and benefits
of snow sports participation.
2007 big game hunt application period begins Jan 17. Get
more information about applications at wildlife.utah.gov/hunting.
Western
Hunting and Conservation Expo, Jan 17-20, Salt Palace
Convention Center, Salt Lake City. Featuring some 500 guides
and outfitters from around the world.
Crossroads
of the West Gun Show, Jan 20-21, South Town Expo Center,
SLC.
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