Campaign Tip
New Ways to Conduct Polls
An article in the February issue of Campaigns & Elections magazine (subscription required to access most articles) notes that survey research methods are proliferating. “Campaigns can choose a sample drawn from a landline phone directory, voter registration database, or panel of Internet users. They can pose questions and collect answers through live telephone calls, automated telephone calls, focus group sessions, canvassing operations, or (again) the Internet.”
As for the accuracy of the different methodologies, one study showed that polls conducted over the phone outperformed online surveys, and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) systems did better than live questioners, according to the article by Michael Cornfield. IVRs are automated surveys where respondents touch numbers on their phone to respond to questions. The popular polling service SurveyUSA uses IVR to conduct quick polls for clients all over the country, including KSL TV in Utah.
Cornfield speculates that IVR may be more accurate because “people are more honest about their voter preferences in response to impersonal (recorded) voices, there being no real person on the other end to try and please.” IVR may recreate the voting booth experience more closely than traditional survey interviews.
However, IVR polling is only good for short surveys with yes/no or simple multiple choice questions. IVR wouldn’t work well for an in-depth benchmark poll attempting to guide campaign strategy or assess opinions on complicated issues requiring multiple questions. “People won’t stay with an automated voice for more than a minute or two,” says Cornfield. IVR polls are usually a lot cheaper than traditional live-person polling.
Happy Science of Economics
Utah economist Jeff Thredgold’s Tea Leaf economic update this week focuses exclusively on good news. “The ‘dismal science’ of economics typically focuses on ‘bad’ news,” writes Thredgold. “In addition, the national media’s spin on the economy is so negative that nearly half of all Americans think the U.S. economy is in recession. We do face major challenges. However, there are many favorable developments taking place within the U.S. economy.” Some excerpts:
- U.S. economic growth in real terms (after inflation) averaged a strong 3.3% annually during the past four years, with only a small chance of recession in 2007
- Average U.S. life expectancy has reached 78 years (men 75…women 80), the highest ever. This compares to 68 years in 1950 and 47 years in 1900
- Air pollution declined 25% over the past 30 years even as the population and the economy grew. Water quality also continues to improve. More progress will occur in coming years as companies see rising value in “going green”
- The U.S. still accounts for roughly 40% of global research and development (R&D) spending
- During the early 1960s, the five-year survival rate from cancer was one in three. Today it is two in three…and continuing to climb
- American household net worth on September 30, 2006 reached $54.1 trillion, the highest ever, and nearly three times the total of 18 years ago. Net worth—the difference between assets and liabilities—has risen for 16 consecutive quarters. Higher home and stock prices led the way
Today in Political History
Feb. 15, 1933: While riding in an open car in Miami, President-elect Franklin D. Roosevelt is the target of an assassination attempt; the bullets miss FDR but kills passenger and Chicago Mayor Anton Cermak. (Source: National Journal 2007 Calendar of American Politics)
Wise Words
(Source: The Patriot Post)
“The most tyrannical of governments are those which make crimes of opinions, for everyone has an inalienable right to his thoughts.” —Baruch Spinoza
“There is in the worst of fortune the best of chances for a happy change.” —Euripides
Blog Watch
Paul Rolly notes: “... Salt Lake Real owner Dave Checketts gushed all over Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., and Republican legislative leaders” at a party last week, while not acknowledging the presence of Democratic leaders Mike Dmitrich or Gene Davis, whose votes were needed for legislation funding stadium infrastructure in Sandy. (For more Legislature-related posts, see The Senate Site, Utah Democratic Caucus, Out of Context, Cato-at-Liberty, Julian Sanchez, Betty's Blog, Intercepts, Educating Utah, Utah Taxpayer, UAC Blog, KVNU's For The People, Red Pills, and Las Vegas Water Grab).... Power Line's Paul Mirengoff interviews Mitt Romney (see also The Fix, The John Birch Society, and Paul Allen).
Best of Late Night Humor
(Source: The Patriot Post)
David Letterman: “Top Ways To Make The Grammy Awards More Exciting”: One Grammy is full of angry yellow jackets; Give a Grammy to the artist whose CD is easiest to open, am I right people?; Michael Richards hands out Rap and Hip Hop awards; Announce Academy Award winners; Performance by Dennis Kucinich; Put another “m” in “Grammy”; Satellite hookup to any winners who are currently incarcerated.
Jay Leno: NASA made it official today: They are no longer going to recruit their astronauts from eHarmony.com. ... Al Gore thanked the music industry for helping to protect the environment. Really? I think Snoop Dogg alone has put enough smoke into the earth’s atmosphere to block out half the sunlight. ... As you know, Al Gore has been nominated for two Academy Awards. But he has a bit of a problem, as far as transportation goes. He doesn’t want to ride there in a big car, and if you’ve seen Al lately, he not longer fits in a small car. So unless Hummer comes out with a hybrid in two weeks, he is screwed. ... In an interview with USA Today, Senator Barack Obama says the shortness of his political resume is his “greatest strength.” Politics is the only business where people brag about how little experience they have. Can you imagine guys saying to you, “Look, I’ve never been to medical school, I’ve never even watched E.R., but if you just let me try and do this brain operation I’ll do the best job I can.” ... So many places ban smoking in public. If Barack Obama wants to smoke, he has to go someplace where no one is around. Like a Joe Biden rally. Some place like that. ... Funny story I saw on the news last night. Seems a couple of people walking down the street in Washington, DC, passed actor Will Smith and they thought he was Barack Obama! They stopped him and said they’re voting for him in 2008. Actually, [the] same thing happened to Elton John. People thought he was Hillary... Famous designer Donatella Versace has recommended that Hillary Clinton stop wearing those pant suits and start wearing dresses and skirts. Versace said Hillary should treat femininity as an opportunity. You know, the way Bill does. |
