Outlook ’08: How Slow is Slow?
Utah economist Jeff Thredgold’s Tea Leaf economic update this week focuses on the 2008 economy. Thredgold remains more optimistic than many economists: “Recession in 2008? Depends who you talk to. As before, we suggest about a 30%-40% chance of recession sometime during the next 12 months. More likely is a sluggish growth scenario, with a 0.5%-2.0% real (inflation adjusted) annual growth pace during the next six months. We expect better performance in 2008's second half.” Thredgold said housing weakness and credit market anxiety, “combined with a constantly negative view from the national media,” may make it “feel” like a recession.
Thredgold’s bottom line: “U.S. economic performance will slow in coming months, with mild recession a possibility. In addition, we expect: a slightly larger budget deficit…tight long-term labor availability…lesser inflation pressures…declining short-term interest rates…soft coastal housing markets, with U.S. housing weakness the norm during much of the year…and an anxious but impressive global economy.”
Principled Government
Former congressional candidate and state representative LaVar Christensen is staying involved in the public policy arena by forming an organization, Citizens for Principled Government (see web site), and by publishing a newsletter and a blog. In the newsletter, blog and web site, Christensen writes extensively about conservative principles and key issues.
Washington Watch
Hatch: Ogden Gets Agents
Sen. Orrin Hatch says the U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security has agreed to his request for two additional Immigration and Customs Enforcement agenda to be assigned to Ogden. “This is huge news for Ogden and their efforts to curb criminal activities related to illegal immigration problems,” Hatch said in a press release. “Ogden Mayor Matthew Godfrey has been particularly concerned about the illegal alien criminal gangs which have been proliferating in Ogden. I brought his concerns to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff and he responded in a very positive way for Ogden, and for Utah.”
WSU Symposium
On Friday, Dec. 7, Weber State University's Institute for Politics, Decency and Ethical Conduct is hosting a symposium titled "Decency in the Political Arena: Is it Really the Exception and Not the Rule?" Free to the public, the symposium will be held on the fourth floor of the Stewart Stadium Sky Suites on WSU's Ogden campus. The event is scheduled to feature a keynote address by Rep. Rob Bishop and a panel discussion featuring Jim Hansen, Randy Horiuchi, Dan Jones, Richard Richards and Jay Taggart. For more info, click here.
Today in Political History
Dec. 6, 1865: The 13th Amendment, abolishing slavery, is ratified by the states.
Dec. 6, 1923: Calvin Coolidge becomes the first U.S. President to have a speech broadcast live on the radio as he speaks to a joint session of Congress. (Source: NBC5 )
Dec. 6, 1973: Gerald Ford is sworn in as Vice President, the first time in U.S. history the office was filled mid-term. (Source: Perspicuity)
Wise Words
“Don't expect to build up the weak by pulling down the strong.”
-- Calvin Coolidge (Source: Quotations Page)
Political Trivia
The Futile Quest
Q: In the last 47 years, how many sitting members of Congress have run for president and been elected?
A: Dozens have run, but zero have been elected. The last sitting member of Congress to be elected president was Sen. John F. Kennedy in 1960. Just since 1988, 24 members of Congress have sought the presidency, and all failed. In 2004, Sens. John Kerry, John Edwards, Bob Graham and Joe Lieberman, and Reps. Richard Gephardt and Dennis Kucinich ran for president. (National Journal 2007 political calendar)
National Politics
Best Stories From . . .
-- Los Angeles Times: "Mike Huckabee, the ascendant Republican presidential candidate in Iowa, is enjoying a surge of support across the country -- and Rudolph W. Giuliani seems to be paying the biggest price, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found."
-- RealClearPolitics: Columnist Tom Bevan looks at the worst mistakes committed so far by the '08 presidential candidates.
-- USA Today: Columnist Michael O'Hanlon says of the Democrats and Iraq: "Rarely in U.S. history has a political party diagnosed a major failure in the country's approach to a crucial issue of the day, led a national referendum on the failing policy, forced a change in that policy that led to major substantive benefits for the nation -- and then categorically refused to take any credit whatsoever for doing so."
-- The Hill: "Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), one of his party's leading centrists, blasted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) Wednesday for his comment that GOP senators were 'puppets' of the Bush administration."
Lighter Side
Favorite Headlines
(Source: James Taranto’s Best of the Web on OpinionJournal.com)
'They're Dumb as a . . .'
"Leahy Criticizes Vacant Posts"--headline, New York Times, Dec. 5
Will Mickey Rat?
"Court Sends Summons to Mickey Mouse"--headline, Associated Press, Dec. 4
Breaking News From 1621
"Mayflower Flooding Effects Still Linger"--headline, Daily Iowan (University of Iowa), Dec. 5 |
