Don't expect Democrats to win control of the U.S. House in November.

 

Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to regain control. Alan Abramowitz has a forecasting model that says they won't even come close, gaining just 2-3 seats.

On the other hand, Republicans may come close to gaining control of the Senate as his model predicts a pickup of 6-7 seats.

Based on the most recent polling results, which show a near tie on the generic ballot and a net presidential approval (approval minus disapproval) of close to zero, the House forecasting model predicts a very small Democratic seat gain (2-3 seats) in the House but not nearly the 25 seats Democrats would need to take back control of the House.  On the other hand, the Senate forecasting model gives Republicans a good chance to regain control of the Senate with an expected pickup of 6-7 seats.  That is due almost entirely to the fact that Republicans are defending only 10 Senate seats this year while Democrats are defending 23 seats.