Votemaster looks at the numbers and finds 97 reasonable combinations that would leave the Electoral College tied at 269 votes. I won't go into all the combinations, but it's safe to say the possiblity of a tie is not too far fetched.
So, what happens if we get that result?
Turns out the founding fathers thought of this possibility. In fact, it has happened twice (1800 and 1824) that nobody got a majority. In the event nobody has an absolute majority of the EVs, the newly elected House of Representatives chooses the President, with each state getting one vote. If the state delegation split evenly, the state probably won't be able to vote. If either candidate gets 26 votes, he becomes President. However, if no one receives 26 votes, possibly due to some states being unable to vote due to evenly split delegations, then we go to Plan C. The new Senate chooses the Vice President, with each senator getting one vote. If the Senate is divided 50-50, then the President of the Senate--and on Jan. 6, 2013 when this would play out, that would be Joe Biden--gets to cast the deciding vote, presumably for himself. If on Jan. 20, the House still hasn't chosen a President, the new Vice President would serve as acting President until the House got its act together. The deadlock could be broken by a House member switching parties (and you can imagine the wheeling and dealing that might occur to encourage that), a member dying, or if it got that far, the 2014 elections.
Suppose the electoral votes are tied, nobody gets 26 votes in the House, the Senate is tied 50-50 and Joe Biden has died after the old Senate has permanently adjourned. President Obama would instantly nominate a new Vice President, but the hamstrung Senate would never confirm him. At that point there would neither be a President elect nor a Vice President elect, so the new Speaker of the House would become President and in his or her absence the President pro tem of the Senate (Daniel Inouye at present). After that it gets hairy. Normally the Secretary of State comes next, but her term would normally end on Jan. 20, 2013 so it is unclear what would happen after that. Probably if all this happens, the Supreme Court would get into the act. Hopefully the electoral college won't be a tie.
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The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. There would no longer be a handful of 'battleground' states where voters and policies are more important than those of the voters in more than 3/4ths of the states, like Utah, that now are just 'spectators' and ignored after the primaries.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for President. Historically, virtually all of the major changes in the method of electing the President, including ending the requirement that only men who owned substantial property could vote and 48 current state-by-state winner-take-all laws, have come about by state legislative action.
A survey of Utah voters showed 70% overall support for the idea that the President of the United States should be the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states. Voters were asked:
"How do you think we should elect the President: Should it be the candidate who gets the most votes in all 50 states, or the current Electoral College system?"
Support, by political affiliation, was 82% among Democrats, 66% among Republicans, and 75% among others.
By gender, support was 78% among women and 60% among men.
By age, support was 70% among 18-29 year olds, 70% among 30-45 year olds, 70% among 46-65 year olds, and 68% for those older than 65.
In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). Support for a national popular vote is strong among Republicans, Democrats, and Independent voters, as well as every demographic group in virtually every state surveyed in recent polls in closely divided Battleground states: CO – 68%, FL – 78%, IA 75%, MI – 73%, MO – 70%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM– 76%, NC – 74%, OH – 70%, PA – 78%, VA – 74%, and WI – 71%; in Small states (3 to 5 electoral votes): AK – 70%, DC – 76%, DE – 75%, ID – 77%, ME – 77%, MT – 72%, NE 74%, NH – 69%, NV – 72%, NM – 76%, OK – 81%, RI – 74%, SD – 71%, UT – 70%, VT – 75%, WV – 81%, and WY – 69%; in Southern and Border states: AR – 80%,, KY- 80%, MS – 77%, MO – 70%, NC – 74%, OK – 81%, SC – 71%, TN – 83%, VA – 74%, and WV – 81%; and in other states polled: AZ – 67%, CA – 70%, CT – 74%, MA – 73%, MN – 75%, NY – 79%, OR – 76%, and WA – 77%. Americans believe that the candidate who receives the most votes should win.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
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