Leavitt Partners today released 12 potential health reform scenarios based on the impending outcome of the 2012 U.S. elections. The scenarios, which are a product of a tool called Health Reform Bracketology, depict what could happen to public entitlement programs, insurance market reforms, insurance distribution and payment and delivery reform under three distinct election scenarios: Democrat gridlock, Republican gridlock and Republican sweep. The scenarios provide valuable health care intelligence that will help health care leaders navigate the significant uncertainty that exists in American health care.

“An already unclear health care environment is made even more uncertain by the 2012 elections,” said Leavitt Partners’ CEO Rich McKeown. “Health Reform Bracketology breaks the uncertainty down into manageable assumptions and implications about the future. Leavitt Partners does not know, nor does the firm advocate, any particular future. Our firm does identify possible futures and analyze what they mean to the business of health care. The results are instructive and provide a window to the future of health care.”

The analysis, available at www.HealthReformBracketology.com, is organized in a simple user interface patterned after the brackets used in a sporting competition. It allows users to select from these election outcomes:

• Democrat gridlock — Democrats maintain the White House and Senate; Republicans maintain the House.
• Republican gridlock — Republicans win the White House and maintain the House; Democrats maintain the Senate.
• Republican sweep — Republicans win the White House, maintain the House and win the Senate.

Then within each election scenario there is a breakdown of how the election results may impact public entitlement programs, insurance market reforms, insurance distribution and payment and delivery reform. For each category Leavitt Partners provides an assumption and then presents applicable implications.

Leavitt Partners developed the analysis under the consultation of the Leavitt Partners FuturePanel, a diverse group of health care thought leaders who have shaped and continue to guide the future of American health care (see list of members at the end of this release). The panel is not unanimous in their opinions. This diversity of thought is reflected in the Health Reform Bracketology findings, as well as survey data included in the analysis. The result is a very measured, pragmatic and balanced analysis of what the future could hold.

For example, under the Democrat gridlock scenario (Democrat in the White House and split Congress) the Health Reform Bracketology analysis expects the administration to move forward with health insurance market regulations that limit insurance underwriting, such as rate banding and community rating. Alternatively, if Republicans achieve a sweep and win the White House and a majority in Congress, then Republicans will look to replace guaranteed issue with high-risk pool development or other incentives for opting in to insurance coverage. These and dozens of other implications have been vetted and are presented in the analysis.

Leavitt Partners augments the analysis with an anonymous survey of industry leaders, congressional members and hill staffers, current and former administration officials and policy experts from differing ideological perspectives for their own predictions of the future. Called LP Health Watch, this “coach’s poll” adds valuable perspective to the scenarios.

You can view the full content on the Web at www.HealthReformBracketology.com. The analysis and surveys will be updated monthly between now and the November election.