The analysis from Third Way says those same eight states - Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina and Pennsylvania - also saw the number of voters who regsterd as Republicans fall, but only by 79,000.
Politico says the implications are big for this year's election:
While the study’s findings will be disturbing to Democrats — party registration declined by 5.2 percent overall in the 8 battleground states — the news isn’t all that promising for the GOP either. Republican registration declined by 0.7 percent in those states over the past four years, despite a competitive presidential primary in 2012.
All of it suggests that independent voters are poised to be an essential constituency this year in a presidential election that shows every sign of being a nailbiter.
Post a Comment
First, while voter participation in both major political parties during the past decade, minor political party registration has increased. In addition, a growing number of individuals are choosing not to affiliate with either major political party. I am not aware of any credible studies concerning why individuals are choosing not to affiliate with a political party.
Second, many states purge individuals from the voting roles for failure to participate in elections. Republicans have significantly higher participation rates than Democrats. This reduces the number of Democratic Party affiliated voters than Republican Party affiliated voters.
Third, the Obama re-election campaign and the Democratic Party did not seek to increase the number of registered Democrats in the off year elections of 2010. The Obama re-election campaign sought to identify and recruit active Democrats for participation in the 2012 re-election campaign. Obama's campaign did not aid the state Democratic Parties in building the number of Democratic voters. It ignored the key constituencies including seniors, young people, and minorities which diminished their numbers.
Fourth, voter suppression activities of the Republican Party and Republican Party state legislatures have curtailed the activities of the League of Women Voters and other groups whose efforts have a larger effect on Democratic voter registration than Republican voter registration. Republicans find more self actuated individuals among their political party registrants.
Fifth, the diminishing resources of organized labor have resulted in less funds being available for voter registration in a constituency that is largely Democratic. Each year, the number of union members declines; therefore, the money available for political activity declines proportionately.
Sixth, the Obama campaign machinery failed to maintain supporter contact and retention activities after the 2008 election. In stead of building a permanent campaign apparatus, the Obama For America organization forgot who brought them. Many of the young and minority activists felt betrayed by the Obama administration as it cozied up to Wall Street insiders like Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers. The administration exacerbated the situation through its aggressive war policies in Iraq and Afghanistan.
If I left anything out, I apologize to any group which I failed to offend.