Latino Decisions predicts, based on polling that Romney is likely to get just 23% of the Latino vote in November. That's 15-points below the 38% the campaign says they need to capture in order to win the election.
The 23% figure is the lowest they've found since they started using their predictive model. It's also more than 9-points below the highest level of 31%.
Any apparent change in a single week of a tracking poll should generally be taken with a grain of salt, but a few factors lead us to believe that this is more than a short-term trend. First of all, the increase in Obama's lead among Latinos is statistically distinguishable from zero; it is therefor highly unlikely that the jump is due simply to sampling error. Second, the movement we are seeing corresponds to similar trends among all vote(see Real Clear Politics). Finally, while it is always risky to speculate about what may be driving a change in polling numbers, some recent bad press for Romney may help explain the recent numbers.
The title of Jordian Fabian's op-ed for ABC-Univision says it all: "Romney Secret Video Exposes Latino Problems." The now infamous video of Romney speaking at a fundraiser, appearing dismissive of poor and many working-class people, may have helped solidify Obama's support and alienated a handful of voters who might otherwise have considered voting for Romney. His joke, captured on the same recording, that he would have "a better shot at winning" the election if he were of Mexican heritage surely rubbed many Mexican-Americans and other Hispanics the wrong way, as did his dire warning of disaster for the nation should Latino voters increasingly support Democratic candidates. Taken together, Romney's "Let Them Eat Cake" moment (complete with sounds of silverware clinking on china at the $50,000-a-plate event) and his specific references to Latinos, may have reinforced the perception that he is out of touch with the vast majority of Latino voters.
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