The Washington Post reports Romney's strength among white voters could very well blunt his weakness among minority groups. In fact, Romney could win more than 60% of the white vote this year.
The most recent national polls from four pollsters — Gallup, Monmouth University, Fox News and the Pew Research Center — all show Romney winning the white vote by more than 20 points. That's something no GOP presidential candidate has done since Reagan's landslide 1984 reelection win.
In 2008, white voters made up nearly three-fourths of the vote, while Latinos comprised 9 percent. Let's say that, in the election on Nov. 6, there is a surge in the Latino vote (up to 11 percent of the electorate) and a coinciding drop in the white vote (down to 72 percent).
Given how small the Latino vote remains, the difference between losing it by 36 points — as John McCain did in 2008 — and losing it by 45 points — a worst-case scenario for Romney — amounts to about a 1 percent overall shift in the national race.
Meanwhile, if Romney won the white vote by 22 percent — a 10-point improvement over McCain — that would gain him 7 percent of the national vote over McCain and essentially even out the national popular vote.
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