An analysis of voting totals from 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2010 shows there are three Democrats - Laura Black (HD 45), Trish Beck (HD 48) and Jay Seegmiller (HD 49) who likely won seats in 2008 primarily because of increased Democratic turnout due to Barack Obama. Those three lost two years later when the Utah electorate became more Republican.
Salt Lake County voter turnout went up from 2004 to 2008 by 10%. All of that increase can be attributed to an increased number of Democrats. Democratic voters, those who cast a ballot for Barack Obama, were up 23% over 2004. Meanwhile Republican voters, those who cast a ballot for John McCain, were down 19% over 2004.
In House District 45, Laura Black vs. Brian Monsen, the number of votes for the Democrat were up 4% from 2004, while the number of Republican voters in that district dropped 14% in the same time frame.
In House District 48, Democrat Trish Beck upped the her vote total by 33% from 2004. The number of Republican voters in that same district dropped 21% from the last presidential election.
In House District 49, Jay Seegmiller saw Democratic vote totals jump 13% from 2004 while Republican votes for Greg Curtis dropped 19%.
| 2008 Salt Lake County Election Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | 2004 vote total | 2008 vote total | % change |
| Total Voters (U.S. President) | 366,728 | 369,884 | +10% |
| Democrat | 135,949 | 176,988 | +23% |
| Republican | 215,728 | 176,692 | -19% |
| House District 45 | |||
| Democrat | 5,852 | 6,116 | +4% |
| Republican | 6,376 | 5,492 | -14% |
| House District 48 | |||
| Democrat | 4,399 | 6,607 | +33% |
| Republican | 8,123 | 6,380 | -21% |
| House District 49 | |||
| Democrat | 6,364 | 7,310 | +13% |
| Republican | 7,244 | 5,833 | -19% |
What happened in 2010 when all three of them lost? Barack Obama was not on the ballot, and turnout favored the Republicans.
Black lost her re-election bid when the Democratic vote totals in HD 45 dropped 37%. Republican totals were down as well for Steve Eliason, the eventual winner, but that drop was only 20% from 2008.
Beck’s rematch with LaVar Christensen saw her vote totals fall 29% from 2008, while Christensen’s only dropped 17%.
Jay Seegmiller saw the biggest percentage drop as his vote totals fell 39% from 2008 while the number of votes for the Republican, Derek Brown, dropped less than 1%.
So, if Barack Obama can help three Democrats win seats in Salt Lake County in a year that saw Republican vote totals fall, what will happen this year?
University of Utah political science professor Matthew Burbank thinks it’s safe to say close races could tip to the GOP simply because Mitt Romney is on the ballot.
“What we saw in 2008 was not a lot of Republicans voting for Obama, but there wasn’t much enthusiasm for McCain and Palin either. Those marginal Republican voters didn’t see anything there, so they didn’t vote.”
And Romney should change that equation.
“Because of the enthusiasm for Romney, more Republicans could turn out. We’re not talking big numbers. Close races in Salt Lake County could tip, and Romney will help Republicans.”
Consider this. In 2004, George W. Bush was able to bring more than 215,000 Salt Lake County Republicans to the polls. That’s more than the nearly 177,000 votes Barack Obama got there. If Mitt Romney increases Republican turnout by just 3-percent, that’s more than 221,000 votes in the county alone.
It’s difficult to believe Democrats will be able to improve on their 2008 showing. But, even a slight increase in turnout for the minority party would not be enough to blunt the expected Romney wave.
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