A new UtahPolicy.com survey finds Mia Love with a slim 3-point lead over Democrat Ben McAdams in their 4th Congressional District race.
The Dan Jones & Associates survey of 400 likely voters in Utah’s 4th District has a margin of error +/- 4.9%, which means the contest between Love and McAdams is a virtual tie, as it falls within that margin.
The three-point margin is much closer than a survey from August conducted by the Utah Debate Commission that gave Love a 9-point lead over McAdams. However, the Debate Commission did not respond to repeated requests from UtahPolicy.com about questions or methodology for their survey.
The 3-point margin in the latest survey is also closer than the six-point gap measured by the Salt Lake Tribune in their June survey conducted by the Hinckley Institute of Politics.
The 4th District race, as expected, has a deep partisan divide, with 83% of Republicans supporting Love and 94% of Democrats behind McAdams. Unaffiliated voters break for McAdams 62-31%.
However you slice it, Love is still under 50% in a district that Mitt Romney carried by 37-points over Barack Obama in 2012. Love won re-election in 2016 with 53.8%.
Both Love and McAdams enjoy approval ratings above 50% in the 4th District. 53% of voters in UT-4 approve of Love’s job performance in Congress, while 44% disapprove, giving her a net approval rating of +9.
66% of 4th District voters approve of McAdams’ job performance as County Mayor, while just 21% disapprove, which puts his net approval rating at +45.
The race between McAdams and Love is expected to be a close contest this year, with several national forecasters rating the contest anywhere from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.” However, FiveThirtyEight.com gives Love an 85% chance of winning in November. The Cook Political Report says the 4th District has a built-in 13-point Republican advantage, while The Crosstab calculates a 17-point Republican advantage.
The Dan Jones & Associates survey was conducted August 22-September 6 among 400 likely voters in the 4th District. It has a margin of error +/- 4.9%.
