Weird things are happening in this mid-term election.
The “blue wave” is turning into a blue ripple.
Pres. Trump is enjoying his highest approval ratings since his 2016 election — higher than Pres. Obama’s numbers at this point in his presidency. But among most Democrats, Trump remains the most hated president in history.
And, just in time for the election climax, a “migrant caravan” is marching through Mexico, aimed at the U.S. border.
All of these things are “nationalizing” the congressional races like nothing I’ve seen for many decades. And as the election is nationalized, and as control of the U.S. House rests on a razor-thin margin, the stakes are dramatically boosted in the 4th Congressional District contest between Congresswoman Mia Love and Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams.
If the House margin was going to be big for either the Republicans or Democrats, then whoever wins the 4th District wouldn’t be a big deal from a national perspective. But with the “blue wave” wavering, each close race becomes much more important.
Thus, the Utah contest could literally determine which party controls the House. And that could determine whether the Trump agenda goes forward, whether attempts are made to impeach Trump and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, and whether partisan gridlock ties up Washington for the next two years.
A tight battle for House control isn’t good news for McAdams. Most voters will still vote for the person, without worrying about the national consequences. But, certainly, there are some moderate Republicans and independents in the 4th District who have to be thinking that a vote for McAdams could put Nancy Pelosi in charge of the House.
That’s why McAdams is saying every chance he gets that he won’t vote for Pelosi as speaker and he will be an independent congressman who will work with both sides.
None of that really matters. If the Democrats control the House, the liberal wing will definitely be in charge. McAdams will be part of a very small moderate caucus. The Democratic agenda will be resistance – prevent Trump from accomplishing anything.
My best guess is that Democrats will still win the House. If would be a defeat of monumental proportions if they don’t. So McAdams can argue that it’s best for Utah to have a member in the majority.
If Democrats win control of the House by just a few seats, Trump will have significantly outperformed Obama in his first mid-term election. Obama lost a whopping 63 seats in 2010.
The question is whether one of those Democratic seats will come from Utah.
